“And when it comes down to it, will people continue to fight and die to protect what cannot be protected?” – he says.
It hasn’t gotten to that point yet.
But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are critically short of ammunition, troops and air defense equipment. A much-publicized counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from captured territory, and Moscow is now preparing for a summer offensive.
What will it look like and what are its likely strategic goals?
“The format of the upcoming Russian offensive is pretty clear,” says General Barrons. “We see Russia striking across the entire front line, using a 5 to 1 advantage in artillery and ammunition, as well as a superiority in manpower, supported by the use of new weapons.”
These weapons include the glide munition, a modernized Soviet-era “dumb bomb” equipped with fins, GPS guidance and high explosives that cause great damage to Ukrainian defenses.
“At some point this summer,” says General Barrons, “we expect to see a major Russian offensive with the intention of making more than a small advance, perhaps with the goal of breaking through Ukrainian positions.
And if this happens, there is a risk that Russian troops will break through to those areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot stop them.”
But where?
Last year, the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was going to attack – from Zaporozhye to the south towards the Sea of Azov. They responded accordingly and successfully stopped the Ukrainian advance.
Now the situation has changed radically – Russia is massing its troops and leaving Kyiv guessing where it is going to attack next.
“One of the problems the Ukrainians face is that the Russians can choose where they deploy their forces,” says Dr Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “This is a very long front line, and the Ukrainians should be able to protect it all.”
But they cannot do this.
“The Ukrainian military will lose ground,” Watling is sure. “The question is how much and which settlements this will affect.”
It is quite possible that the Russian General Staff has not yet decided which direction of attack to choose as the main one. But three main ones can be distinguished.
Kharkiv
“Kharkov is certainly vulnerable,” says Dr Watling.
Ukraine’s second-largest city, perilously close to the Russian border, is a tempting target for Moscow.
Currently, Kharkov is subject to daily attacks from Russia, and Ukraine is unable to create a reliable air defense system to repel deadly attacks from drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.
“I think the first target of the Russian offensive this year will be a breakthrough in the Donbass,” adds General Barrons, “but the Russian military’s eyes will also be on Kharkov, which is about 29 kilometers from the Russian border, and that is the main prize.”
Will Ukraine be able to continue to function as a viable entity if Kharkov falls? Yes, say analysts, but it would be a catastrophic blow to both morale and the economy.
Donbass
The territory of eastern Ukraine has been at war since 2014, when Moscow-backed separatists declared themselves “people’s republics.”
In 2022, Russia illegally annexed two regions of Donbass – Donetsk and Lugansk. This is where most of the fighting has taken place over the past 18 months.
Ukraine made a controversial decision, making enormous efforts and expending large human and material resources, trying to hold first the city of Bakhmut and then Avdiivka.
During these battles, she lost both, as well as some of her best fighting units.
In Kyiv they object: the resistance led to disproportionately high losses among the Russians.
It’s true, the battles for these populated areas were called “meat grinders.”
But Moscow still has many troops that it can throw into battle, while Ukraine does not.
This week, the commander of US forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, warned that unless the US sends significantly more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, the balance of forces on the battlefield will be 10 to 1 in Russia’s favor.
Size matters. The tactics, leadership and equipment of the Russian army may be inferior to the Ukrainian one, but it has such a numerical superiority, especially in artillery, that even if it does nothing else this year, it will continue to push Ukrainian forces westward, capturing village after village.
Zaporozhye
This is also a tasty morsel for Moscow.
The city with a population of more than 700 thousand people (in peacetime) is located dangerously close to the front line.
For Russia, it is also a thorn in its side – the capital of the region of the same name, which Russia illegally annexed, and yet the city remains part of Ukraine.
True, the formidable defenses that Russia built south of Zaporozhye in anticipation of a Ukrainian attack will now complicate the Russian offensive.
The so-called Surovikin line, consisting of three layers of defense, is surrounded by the largest and densest minefields in the world. Russia could partially clear them of mines, but its preparations will most likely be discovered.
All chips for victory
Russia’s strategic goal this year may not even be to seize territory. She may simply be trying to crush Ukraine’s morale and convince its Western supporters that this war is a lost cause.
Jack Watling believes Russia’s goal is to “try to create a sense of hopelessness”: “This [российское] the offensive will not lead to a permanent end to the conflict, no matter how it goes for one side or the other.”
General Barrons also does not believe that even given the difficult situation in which Ukraine now finds itself, Russia will automatically consolidate its advantage with a decisive offensive.
“I think the most likely outcome is that Russia will achieve success, but not breakthrough success. She will not have enough strength to advance to the river [Днепр]. But the war will turn in Russia’s favor,” he believes.
One thing is certain: Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine.
He is like a poker player who bets all his chips on winning. He is counting on the fact that the West will not be able to provide Ukraine with enough means to defend itself.
And despite all the NATO summits, conferences and campaign speeches, chances are he’s right.
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2024-04-15 19:55:45