Market agents begin to weigh projections regarding the future of the economy, following the Monetary Fund International (IMF) put the signature this Friday to the agreement approved by Congress for the restructuring of debt for some 45,000 million dollars.
The IMF board voted in favor of the agreement reached with the government, which establishes a grace period of four years and a half and extends the disbursement payments to 10 years, so the Treasury will begin to pay off the debt in 2026 and end in 2034.
The panel S&P Merval of leading shares of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange during the week it gained 4.4% in pesos and 2.5% measured in dollars “cash with settlement” implicit in the ADRs that are traded on Wall Street.
In the 93,010 pointsthe leading panel reached its highest level in pesos since last November 12, while measured in dollars “counted with liquid” touched a maximum from February 21, 2020prior to the closure of activities by COVID-19.
Global bonds in dollars, issued with the sovereign restructuring, rose on Thursday and Friday, but that recovery was not enough to avoid a weekly decline of 1.8 percent. The risk country of JP Morgan ended in the 1,798 basis points for Argentina, with a rise of ten points in the week.
“The problem with the scheme agreed with the IMF is that there is no nomina anchorl ”, he summed up Roberto GerettoFundcorp analyst, and explained that “the official dollar cannot be because the Government agreed that it cannot be delayed. Neither is the amount of money, because the agreement does not limit the indirect issuance for disarmament of Leliq (BCRA Liquidity Letters) and the purchase of reserves, which helps the Treasury obtain financing in the market.”
Geretto warned that “there is also no fiscal anchor, since reducing the deficit will require raising rates. Unlike past agreements where a jump in the exchange rate and inflation was expected, in this one the liquefaction takes place in installments”.
With the signature of agreement with the IMF, the disbursement of some USD 9,700 million was immediately triggered equivalent in Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which allowed the Treasury to comply with the payment of regarding USD 2,800 million pending from Tuesday 22.
Likewise, the Bookings Central Bank gross international were reinforced by 17%, with the remainder of some USD 6,400 millionand the stock once more exceeded $43.3 billion for the first time in six months.
“It seems that the Fund is helping the Government to have a bridge until the next government. If we think that this program is the solution for Argentina, I don’t think so. But yes, perhaps it is something sufficient to deliver the Government at the end of 2023 and that the economy has not exploded, “he said. Francisco Gismondiby Empiria Consultores.
The analysts of Personal Portfolio Investments pointed out that “there was little reaction to the pre-agreement with the betting club this week and the internal politics within the ruling coalition generate noise within the market. Guzmán traveled to Paris and got a new ‘time bridge’ postponing payments for two and a half years, in line with the times agreed in the program with the Fund”.
“The global situation might be favorable in the long term, for example due to the importance of the country as an agricultural exporter. But in the short term the challenges look very important. Political and economic constraints portend a continued struggle in the mud of decadence if strategic changes are not addressed,” he noted in a report. VatNet Research.
“As the days go by, it is already beginning to be glimpsed that the potential impacts on global activity for this year would exceed those that cause the financial turmoil: the rise in inflation – where the rise in commodities- and the disruptions in global trade might suffer the dynamics of global GDP in 2022″, indicated Ecolatina.
The “dollar stock market” rose
In the foreign exchange area, the highlight was the recovery of prices of alternative dollars to official control that are traded through stock assets, now once more in the area of 200 pesos.
The “counted with liquidation” through the Global 30 (GD30C) rose 2.6% or almost five pesos, to $200.49, a value very close to that of the MEP dollar, now at $200.35 through the Bonar 30 (AL30D). So they converge with the “blue” dollar, which resigned 50 cents in the week, to 202 pesos for sale.
In the formal plaza, the smooth path of devaluation of the peso continued. In the wholesale market, the US currency gained 68 cents (+0.6%) in the week, $110.38, with a gap of 83% compared to the free dollar.
“This week the BCRA sold just over USD 91 million, reducing the positive accumulated for the month to approximately USD 417 million,” he estimated. Gustavo Quintanaagent of PR Corredores de Cambio.
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