Shai Har Zvi added, “Israel may find itself under pressure to end the war.”
In an interview with the Hebrew newspaper “Maariv”, Shai Har Zvi, a researcher at the Institute of Politics and Strategy at the Israeli Reichman University, stated that the picture of the current situation is complex, in addition to the expected strategy of former US President Donald Trump, who was elected for a second and final term.
Har Zvi says: “Trump will aim to end the war in the Middle East even before he enters the White House on January 20… He already mentioned in his victory speech that he does not want to start wars.”
He explains that “Trump’s main motivation stems from his desire to focus on the most important challenge for the United States on the international stage, the American economy, and China.”
The researcher talked about three main goals in Trump’s agenda in the Middle East, which are “ending the war in Lebanon and Gaza, which will also lead to the return of the hostages, promoting a historic normalization agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and dealing with the matter.”
Trump realizes that in order to strengthen the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will have to at least present his willingness to give the Palestinians a political horizon.
As for Iran, the expert expects that Trump may work to promote a new nuclear agreement using economic pressure and sanctions on Iran.
Har Zvi confirms, saying: “He certainly does not want to be drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran after entering the White House, especially since it is Trump’s last term in office and it may have a major impact on his behavior.”
Har Zvi estimates that Trump “will be freed from electoral and political considerations and will strive to achieve important achievements.”
He shows that, despite the “America First” policy and the desire to focus on the Asian arena, Har Zvi explains that the United States will not be able to disengage from the Middle East due to the region’s strategic importance.
He concludes that Israel under Trump may find itself under pressure to end the war in Gaza and move toward regional arrangements as part of Trump’s broader perception of American interests in the region and the Middle East and global competition with China, he says.
On Tuesday, candidate Donald Trump announced his victory in the US presidential elections, becoming the 47th President of the United States.
Source: “Maariv”
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**Interview with Shai Har Zvi: Insights on Russia-Iran Relations and the Middle East**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Shai. In light of the recent report on the deepening ties between Russia and Iran, how do you see these developments affecting the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine?
**Shai Har Zvi:** Thank you for having me. The relationship between Russia and Iran has always been complex, marked by mutual suspicion but now evolving into a strategic partnership. This could have direct implications for the Middle East; while they may collaborate, their interests are not entirely aligned. For instance, Iran’s support for certain groups in the region can counter Russian aims, especially as Russia tries to maintain a foothold in Syria.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned pressure on Israel to end the conflict in the region. Can you elaborate on that?
**Shai Har Zvi:** Certainly. Israel may face increasing pressure not only from regional players but also from international ones, particularly if a new U.S. administration takes a more interventionist stance or advocates for peace quickly. If Donald Trump is re-elected, as he suggested in his victory speech, he may prioritize ending the war to refocus on economic issues and relations with China. This may force Israel to reconsider its approach in light of U.S. support or dissent.
**Interviewer:** How does Trump’s potential return to office shape your perceptions of U.S. policy in the Middle East?
**Shai Har Zvi:** Trump’s focus seems to be on consolidating power to address global priorities like the economy. His desire to avoid new conflicts could lead him to push for a resolution in the Middle East sooner rather than later, which might entail significant compromises from Israel or other regional players to align with U.S. interests.
**Interviewer:** In your opinion, what are the implications for the broader Middle East if the Russia-Iran alliance strengthens?
**Shai Har Zvi:** A stronger Russia-Iran alliance could embolden Iran in its regional policies, creating a more volatile environment. This could challenge U.S. dominance and influence in the region, leading to a realignment of relationships among Middle Eastern nations, particularly if they are trying to navigate their own interests with both Washington and Moscow in mind.
**Interviewer:** Fascinating insights, Shai. Thank you for sharing your perspective on these intricate dynamics.
**Shai Har Zvi:** My pleasure. Thank you for having me.
