French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen seeks to overturn the monotony of the political scene and achieve a surprise in the second round of presidential elections, and Macron is able to widen the difference between him and Le Pen.
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Melenchon came third with 20% of the vote and refused to support Le Pen in the second round
In a repeated scenario for the 2017 presidencies, French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen managed, on Sunday, to: Qualification for the second roundfor the second time in a row, with a difference of 4%.
Macron received 28.6% of the vote, compared to 24.4% for Le Pen, according to estimates by the Ifop think tank, which was broadcast by the official French channels TF1 and LCC.
The radical leftist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, for the second time in a row, was unable to catch up with Le Pen, and climb to the second round, following he came third with 20.2% of the vote.
While the far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, fell resoundingly following opinion polls nominated him at the end of 2021 to compete with Macron in the second round, and oust Le Pen from the leadership of the far right, thanks to his violent anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, but he received only 6.4% of the vote, far away. Far from Melenchon.
What is interesting is the continued decline in participation rates in the French elections in general. After a 78% participation rate was recorded in the 2017 presidential elections, this percentage decreased by 5 points and reached 73.3%.
The decline in the participation rate reflects the dissatisfaction of more than a quarter of registered French voters (48.7 million registered) with the programs of the 12 candidates, and the presidential race entering the tunnel of monotony and repetition.
Macron’s popularity rises compared to 2017
It is no better for Macron than to run in the second round of the presidential elections once morest the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, which he previously won in 2017, receiving 66% of the vote to less than 34%.
In contrast to the presidency of 2017, in which Macron participated in the dress of the semi-submerged candidate and was able to outperform the candidates of the two main parties (the Socialist and the Republican) in the first round, ascending to the second round and winning by 2.22% over Marine Le Pen, Macron enters today in the dress of the President of France and the President of the Council of the Union European.
Macron will not find a better candidate than Le Pen to be his opponent in the second round of presidential elections, because it will guarantee him, without making many concessions, the votes of the left and people of immigrant origin, to avoid the worst option.
Macron was able to widen the difference between him and Le Pen in the 2022 presidencies to 4.2 percentage points compared to the 2017 presidency, and not only that, as the percentage of votes he obtained in these elections increased by 5 percentage points compared to the 2017 presidencies, which means that he raised his popularity despite the criticisms leveled once morest him. Because of the decline in purchasing power, the demonstrations of the yellow vests, and his decisions once morest Muslim immigrants.
Macron benefited from the prior support of the candidates of the Green Party (Yannik Gadot 4.6%), the Republicans (Valerie Pecres 4.6%), the Communist Party (Fabien Roussel, 2.5%) and the Socialist Party (Anne Hidalgo 1.9%).
Le Pen is looking for a surprise
Marine Le Pen seeks to overturn the monotony of the political scene and achieve a surprise in the second round of the presidential elections, especially as she managed to raise her score by 3 points, as she won 24.4% in these elections compared to 21.5% in the 2017 elections.
Recent opinion polls show that Le Pen narrowed the gap between her and Macron to just 3 points (48.5% versus 51.5%).
Le Pen developed her anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim political rhetoric, and began attaching more importance to the purchasing power, which has become a concern for the French citizen more than the issue of immigration and security.
The New York Times said, “Le Pen’s election in the second round will be a shock.” Like electing Trump“.
Opinion polls revealed that 53% of the French put improving purchasing power at the top of their priorities, while the immigration file has moved to fourth place following the Ukrainian war and the environment by 24%.
Marine Le Pen adapted to the development of the interests of the French, and its openness to other files, would attract to it those who are angry with Macron’s policies, and may benefit from the punitive vote, including the left and Muslims.
Changing the party’s name from the “National Front” to the “National Rally” represents not only an attempt by Le Pen to break with the legacy of her political father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the former leader of the far-right, but also an attempt to renew the party’s political discourse, and an attempt to open up on a small scale to other groups.
The second round of the presidency differs from the first in that it focuses on the game of alliances, and the ability of Le Pen to convince former rivals such as Zemmour and Melenchon to ally with her.
And if Zemmour rushed to support Le Pen, Melenchon pledged not to give her even a single vote, while the right-wing candidate Nicolas Dupont-Inion (a deputy from the Republican Party) announced his support for Le Pen to block the way in front of Macron.
Melenchon cuts off hope for Le Pen
Since the collapse of the Socialist Party, which was led by former President François Hollande, in the presidency of 2017, several parties have been racing to share his popular legacy, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Although Macron won the lion’s share, as he emerged from the mantle of the Socialist Party, Melenchon has become more representative of the diaspora of the left, following the outgoing president adopted more right-wing policies, especially towards the working class.
Melenchon’s defense of immigrants and Muslims earned him the support of an important segment of this group, even if he did not adopt some of his radical communist ideas, and this explains why he won second place with 20.2% of the vote, beating the Socialist Party candidate Ann Hidalgo by a wide margin (1.9%).
Although Melenchon lost the opportunity to ascend to the second round, he got regarding 7 million votes, and he can play the role of the hair of the balance between Macron and Le Pen, but he announced shortly following the preliminary results of the elections that he would not support Le Pen, which is likely either his support for Macron or either Neither of them is supported.
Given that 4 losing candidates announced their support for Macron while two decided to support Le Pen, who lost any hope of supporting the biggest losing candidates, the French president is closest to succeeding himself.
