Surprise ! Saudi Arabia and China are getting closer to the point where Chinese leaders are talking regarding the most important diplomatic event between China and the Arab world since the communist takeover of China in 1949. Yet this rise in l Chinese influence in the region was predictable.
Beijing’s skillful diplomacy in the Arab world has been at work for decades. The patience of Chinese leaders is beginning to pay off, especially as the relative power of the United States is falling and China has long become the main trading partner of countries in the Arab world. The Americans remain the most important military players in the region. But for how long ? It seems that we will have to get used to fluid alliance games. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to have found a new bride for his harem. Will this new wife foment a palace revolution?
1. What is China’s traditional policy in the region?
China is pursuing a conciliatory and cautious policy in the region. It has managed the tour de force of being close to both the Israelis and the Palestinians or the Iranians and the Saudis. But its official policy hides preferences. It has long been committed to the Iranians, to the point of providing them with aid for their nuclear program as early as 1985. Since then, it has officially positioned itself once morest the Iranian nuclear program, but it continues to invest massively in Iran.
2. What is Saudi Arabia’s interest in getting closer to China?
The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and China should come as no surprise given that the US has virtually stopped buying Saudi oil and China has become Riyadh’s main customer. Saudi Arabia supplies China with regarding 17% of its imported oil. But above all, the Saudi leaders see the end of the oil era coming. Soon, Europe will no longer need so much oil. The reconversion of the Saudi economy is therefore urgent. China, with its new silk roads, its advanced technologies, its cheap workers, promises to help Saudi Arabia achieve its new ambitions.
3. What is China’s interest in getting closer to Saudi Arabia?
The Saudis have a lot of money to spend and their manpower is insufficient to realize their new economic projects. Therefore, the Chinese economy will benefit from this rapprochement. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is one of the major centers of influence in the Arab world. The Chinese leaders can only be delighted to have a stronger presence there, especially since this presence contributes to weakening that of the United States.
4. Does China have a new strategy in this part of the world?
China has been following the same strategy for decades. For her the world is a huge game of go where she wisely places her pieces in order to extend her control. China’s successes are especially visible in the economic field. However, its military progress shows that within a few years it might replace the Americans to protect certain countries and ensure the stability of the region.
5. How does this rapprochement weaken the United States?
American leaders believe that the Chinese are not capable of ensuring regional stability. They have just warned the countries of the region once morest Chinese temptation. In reality, no one is irreplaceable.
