2024-04-18 10:56:14
“Magic Trout” Mike Trout is undoubtedly the premier major league player of the 2010s. He has won the MVP award three times and is already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. However, in recent years, Trout has not only started going on and off the disabled list, but has played fewer than 120 games in 2021 and 2023 combined. Last year, he even posted the worst batting record in recent years, and. his strikeout rate remains high. It seems he’s in trouble. After Ohtani’s withdrawal during the last match of the Classic, the destinies of the two stars completely crossed…
However, Shenyutu is indeed a Shenyutu. He started the new season with an MVP level. Not only is that much better than last year’s 134wRC+, but it’s even more terrifying than the three years he won the MVP. Again? Can its good performance be maintained?
How do contemporary mythical beasts regain glory?
First of all, you should know that 134wRC+ is actually very good. Of the players who averaged batting average last year, only 12 players did better. Even Cody Bellinger, who was touted by everyone as having made a great comeback, and Taiwanese super rookie Corbin Carroll, mightn’t do better. But this discussion is regarding Shen Yu, the greatest of the 2010s, and that’s why he’s being harassed.
Getting back on topic, Mike Trout started the season very well this year. His 190 wRC+ was top ten in the league. He currently leads the major leagues in home runs with 8 home runs. Judging by his performance so far, it’s possible! we can say that he was completely resurrected.
Mike Trout is not only good at hitting the ball, but he can also hit the ball extremely far, reaching 475 feet.
Complete evolution of batting ability
The biggest difference between Mike Trout and previous years is his hitting! The failure rate is only 16.7%, which is not only in the top 15% in the league, but also halved compared to previous years. The dilemma that the failure rate was around 30% in the last three years no longer exists. . Therefore, the withdrawal rate went straight from a high of 27% to 18%! And it’s not like Trout is swinging randomly because he can’t swing. His strikeout rate is almost the same as the last two years, both above 40%. Therefore, Trout adds more hitters to the field, generally speaking, his results may increase. After all, compared to an absolutely absent strikeout, there is definitely a greater chance of causing damage.
Mike Trout once once more had an MVP-worthy start and also improved his strikeout and hitting issues in previous years.
What heights can your career reach?
So how did Trout do it? The author speculates that the hitting point may have been adjusted, as the putting rate increased sharply from just over 20% to 37%. However, the attraction rate did not decrease significantly, so this article is inconclusive.
Batting performance is still excellent
Attentive readers will certainly notice that although Trout’s Savant page is “all red”, Trout’s batting average initial velocity is not as strong as before. It went from at least 90 miles in previous years, the top 10 percent in the league, to 87 miles. , and instead became the bottom 30.%! But I don’t think we need to worry too much, because Trout’s Barrel% is still excellent, ranking in the top 5%. Barrel percentage is more predictive of future bat quality than average initial bat velocity. Please see the picture:
This image shows the predictive power of data like average hitter velocity and barrel percentage in 2022 on hitter quality in 2023. Chart is based on Barrel%, MAX EV max muzzle velocity, average muzzle velocity of 2022 MLB hitters andEno Sarris’ New Best Data SpeedLet’s wait and predict xWOBACON in 2023, which is the quality of the stick. Obviously, the one with the highest R-squared is Barrel%, which is brl22. Therefore, Barrel% is significantly better than looking at average initial strike speed!
Of course, this year’s results represent only a very small sample, but Trout’s barrel percentage last year was also an excellent 16%, so with historical experience to back it up, this article estimates that Trout’s stick quality is still as strong as before!
Summary: Is this a flash in the pan or is the beast coming back?
Of course, judging from advanced data such as xWOBA, we can know that Trout’s current results are still a bit liquid. For example, Woba is 0.439, but xWOBA is only 0.418. Overall xWOBACON, that is, quality at the plate following excluding strikeouts and walks, is well below career average, which is the second-worst performance of his entire career. Additionally, the writing of this article was influenced by the article on the official MLB website: The certain Hall of Fame strikes like a GOAT once moreInspirational, but the article says Trout can attack the core and corners of the ball effectively. Thanks to the Swing/Take system, looking at Trout’s results in various areas of the strike zone, you can see that the shadow in the corners is always – 2. , is no different from other hitters, so this argument fails.
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But on the one hand, these are all small samples, and the fluctuations are relatively large; on the other hand, even xWOBACON, the second worst player of his career, is still in the top 10% of the league. Therefore, this article believes that last year’s 134wRC+ was actually just a temporary drop, and Trout, the contemporary mythical beast, is back! The biggest remaining obstacle is whether he can maintain his health and continue to show his miraculous abilities as the world’s best player in the past.
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