«The meeting» Israel-Hezbollah is in the first round, not only in an obvious temporal sequence, but rather for the very meaning of the first round of a fight: that of the search for contact with the adversary, of testing his defense skills, weaknesses, acquiring an idea of his overall strength. All this is even more true for Israel, forced to abandon the position of privilege from which it governed operations without apparent problems, protected by an impenetrable air shield and capable of reaching, without any risk, any type of objective regardless of its type or distance. geographical. In short – as they say – he had to put his boots on the ground, and on a ground in which he will no longer be able to compete in good and bad weather, but will have to engage in a certain number of hand-to-hand fights with an opponent this time particularly equipped and trained. for this type of comparison.
Hezbollah’s military wing is certainly the most capable military instrument set up by Iran in its affiliation, but its physiognomy is anomalous compared to a traditional army, non-existent or almost non-existent in the maritime dimension, limited to modest missile systems and a few drones in the maritime dimension. air force, particularly strong and trained however in the land component of urban guerrilla warfare, attacks and non-traditional warfare. It is true that Israel has taken precautions to bring its adversary into the field with every possible handicap, as crippled as possible: it has reduced its personnel, albeit to a relative extent, it has compromised its communication and command capabilities, it has neutralized its large part of the armament, he attacked their morale by eliminating the charismatic leaders one by one; and now both in the arena. Israeli blood will therefore also flow, Netanyahu and the IDF, the armed forces, know this, and this is also why the entire operation will be limited to the reclamation of the border areas with Lebanon, at a depth related to the radius of action of the raids of the Hezbollah missiles, contained within a few dozen km in the worst case scenario.
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On the other hand, Netanyahu has repeatedly declared that the objective is to bring home the 60/70 thousand fellow citizens forced to flee their homes and who have been waiting for a year for the area to be made safe.
Everything will therefore probably be concluded in Lebanon in a short time; what won’t end is the proxy war with Iran. The claws of which are being progressively neutralised, few weapons will remain in the hands of the regime in the short term and the residual military capabilities will be even more modest. Nor is it conceivable that Iran will change its strategy on the fly. It would not have the strength, with a military giant like Israel, and at the same time would have to deal with internal problems that are easily conceivable and probably ungovernable. Apart from a possible repetition of a salvo of missiles, like yesterday’s, it will not be possible to push it, and Israel has shown that it knows how to manage a similar scenario without excessive damage.
Therefore, the call of the wild could appear on the horizon, the resort to terrorism, the most insidious weapon for everyone and the most difficult to neutralize. The Supreme Leader’s recent call to arms, the call for armed struggle by the Muslim world against Israel, does not seem to have had any effect. And yet the Shiite wing of the varied world of terrorism could take the field with new strategies or hybrid forms of struggle even outside the geographical areas in which terrorists linked to Iran have traditionally competed so far. In the past, appearances on the scene of terror outside the Middle Eastern borders have been limited, nothing compared to their Sunni “brothers”, and yet the groups belonging to Shiism have developed notable capabilities in other forms of crime, which are not difficult to convert into actual terrorism or similar activities. This is why, regardless of the fate of the military operations in Lebanon or in the Middle Eastern area, it will be necessary for anyone who believes they are associated in some way with this war to deploy their antennas to listen fully to a possible flare-up of the terrorist phenomenon.
#resurgence #terrorism #worrying #bombs #Tempo
2024-10-07 09:01:05
