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Global Olive Oil Production Estimates for 2024/25
Table of Contents
- 1 Global Olive Oil Production Estimates for 2024/25
- 2 Understanding Olive Cultivation Challenges: Risks and Recommendations
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- 11 Global Production Trends: Returning to Normal Levels
The Scientific Society of Olive Cultivation Encyclopedists (4E), comprising Greek scientists and market experts, has provided updated estimates for the world olive oil production for the upcoming 2024/25 harvest.
One hundred days following their initial assessments, 4E concludes that while some revisions have been made to production forecasts in certain olive-producing countries, the overall landscape for Spanish and global production remains largely unchanged. The specific estimates for olive oil production in thousands of tons are as follows:
- Spain: 1,300 – 1,500 tons
- Turkey: 300 – 320 tons
- Greece: 230 – 290 tons (average of 250 tons)
- Tunisia: 260 – 280 tons
- Italy: 180 – 200 tons
- Portugal: 160 – 180 tons
- Morocco: 110 – 140 tons
- Syria: 90 – 100 tons
- Others: 550 – 650 tons
- Estimated global production: 3,000 – 3,200 tons
Production Trends Over the Years
This data indicates that after several challenging years marked by drought and adverse weather conditions, global olive oil production is expected to stabilize and return to normal levels, barring any unforeseen catastrophic events.
Projected Price Trends
With this expected stabilization in production, prices for olive oil are anticipated to decline to between €5 – €5.5 per kilogram. The raw material prices, particularly at wholesale levels, are likely to decrease as oil mills replenish their reservoirs, especially post-December 2024.
A producer price of €5 – €5.5/kg for medium-quality extra virgin olive oil could be seen as reasonable under these conditions, contrasting with earlier prices that peaked at €9/kg before dropping to €7 – €7.5/kg.
The Importance of Consumption
Consumption patterns will be a critical factor in shaping the market. The significant price increase in recent periods has driven 30 to 40% of olive oil consumers to shift towards alternative seed oils or reduce usage in various sectors, including mass and domestic catering. A swift recovery of olive oil consumption is crucial to maintain a balance in supply and demand and avoid downward pressure on producer prices.
Actions to promote olive oil consumption, alongside price reductions in retail chains, are vital for the sector’s stability and the welfare of olive producers.
Stock Reserves and Market Stability
Current forecasts indicate that reduced stocks at the end of the 2023/24 commercial season should suffice to bridge the gap until the new harvest of fresh olive oils begins, ensuring that market tensions remain minimal.
The Future of Olive Oil Production
Given that olive oil comprises less than 1.5% of the global production and consumption of oils and fats, collaboration among olive-producing countries, stakeholders across the value chain, and scientific communities will be essential for the industry’s future success.
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Understanding Olive Cultivation Challenges: Risks and Recommendations
Risks Faced by Olive Producers
The Scientific Society of Olive Cultivation Encyclopaedists emphasizes the critical need for vigilance among olive producers. With the onset of September and expected beneficial rains, there is a heightened risk of extensive pest infestations in olive groves. This situation demands proactive measures and collaboration with agronomists and the competent DAOK (Department of Agricultural Operations and Knowledge).
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Global Production Trends: Returning to Normal Levels
Understanding the Return to Normal Production Levels
As economies around the world begin to stabilize, we are witnessing a gradual return to normal production levels across various industries. This transition is crucial for businesses seeking sustainability and growth in an ever-changing market.
Key Factors Influencing Production
Several factors play a role in the recovery of production levels, including supply chain improvements, workforce reintegration, and technological advancements. Each of these elements contributes to enhancing efficiency and reducing operational costs.
Global Market Analysis
Recent data indicates that global production levels have shown significant improvement. Regions that were heavily impacted by disruptions are now adjusting to new market conditions, leading to a balanced and robust economic environment.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, experts predict that continued investment in technology and workforce development will further solidify the gains made in production. As businesses adapt to new realities, the focus on agility and innovation will be paramount in achieving long-term success.
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