Latest fireworks in the American election campaign for the 2024 presidential elections pitting the Democrat Kamala Haris, deputy of outgoing President Joe Biden, and the Republican Donal Trump, already in the White House for one term since 2016. We will vote on Tuesday 5 November but between preferences expressed by post, different rules from state to state, different time zones and polls that show the two candidates very close, when will we know who won? The answer to this question is not simple although there are many reasons why one should not expect a quick announcement of the winner. The United States does not have a centralized counting system of electoral votes like in Italy, where the Ministry of the Interior receives the results and then communicates them. In the US, elections are administered at the state level if not even at the county level. The votes from the various seats are counted and passed to a state electoral commission which then seals them and passes them to Congress, where in December the Senate and House meet to open them, recount them and certify them. Then in January the two Chambers in joint session certify the outcome in the presence of the Vice President. It’s a process that takes months, so who will say on election night who won the presidential election?
I DECISION DESK – For decades the burden and honor belonged to the Associated Press, which over the years was joined by other ‘decision desks’ – as they are called – from CNN to Fox, from CBS to NBC, up to ABC. Fox News is considered one of the most reliable because it has its own decision desk that is separate from the pro-Trump management of the station. However, you must keep in mind that this is a declaration, not a certification. What should we expect from next election night? First of all, we must consider that at 11pm New York time, when in Italy it is 5am the next day, all the polling stations will have closed. Or at least they should, because those who are already in line have the right to vote even if the polling station closes. It could thus happen that in a polling station that should have closed at 8pm, voting is still taking place at 10pm. If one of the two candidates were to win by a landslide, the result could be known overnight. But no one expects a landslide victory for either Trump or Harris, so a scenario like that of 2012, when Obama’s confirmation to the White House was announced already at 11.48 pm is unlikely and that of 2000 is more likely, when in Bush-Gore challenge, the result was known in December, only when the Supreme Court expressed its opinion at the end of an interminable battle involving appeals.
THE PRECEDENTS – On that occasion it was a handful of votes in Florida that decided: the votes were being recounted in the state and there was an advantage of only 547 votes for Bush over Gore. In December the Supreme Court decided that recounts needed to stop and ruled Bush’s victory. Since 2020, the electoral method in the United States has changed and the majority of voters now prefer to vote by mail. In 2020, there was a pandemic and the idea of lining up in a crowded place indoors to vote in person was not pleasant for anyone. Thus 70% of voters preferred to vote by post. Subsequently the figure dropped to 50 percent, but it seems that this trend is now consolidated. With what outcome for the result? In states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, postal votes are allowed to be counted only after the votes cast in person have finished counting. This is why in the 2020 elections what was called “the red mirage” occurred which made people believe that Trump had won with a large majority: Republican voters preferred to vote in person and Democratic voters by post so as they were counted. postal votes, Biden closed the gap until he reached and overtook his opponent.
VOTING BY MAIL – It is possible that this will also happen in these elections because Pennsylvania, which brings 19 electoral votes and is considered a fundamental state for a candidate to win, has 9 million likely voters and at least 40% of these have chosen to vote by correspondence. Which means that 3.6 million votes will have to be counted after the others have finished counting.
THE KEY STATES – It is clear that the Pennsylvania result will arrive late, certainly not by 11 pm when all the polls close. The same will be true for other key states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia. Further complicating things in this electoral cycle is the fact that from 2020 to today some swing states, in particular Georgia, Arizona and Michigan, have filled the electoral commissions – those in which the votes of the various seats – of MAGA exponents, that is, of Trumpians. Electoral commissions have the right to order the counting of votes to be stopped if any observer reports from one of the polling stations that they have witnessed fraud. With the result that the outcome of that polling station is not only not communicated immediately, but probably not even in the following hours or even days because one of the parties, whether Republican or Democratic, could challenge the electoral commission’s decision and appeal to a court electoral administration or, if even this decision does not satisfy him, appeal to the Supreme Court. And so the procedure lasts for weeks.
WHEN THE RESULTS? – If everything went smoothly, if the observers in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan had no criticisms to make of the vote counting, if the Election Commission did not block any counting of any seats, if there was an avalanche of votes for Trump or for Harris, the result could be obtained on election night. But if any of these problems were to arise, we will end up in the Greek heats, because it is the swing states that will decide whether one of the candidates really has the electoral majority.
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American elections explained to kids
Or these reasons, it is likely that the announcement of the presidential election result may take days, if not weeks, especially in such a closely contested race. Voters and analysts alike are urged to remain patient as the counting process unfolds, adhering to the various regulations and procedures in place across different states.
In addition to the delayed counting of mail-in ballots, we must also consider the potential for legal challenges that could arise if the results are particularly close in key battleground states. Such situations may lead to recounts or disputes, similar to those witnessed in the 2000 elections. Voters are reminded that the results proclaimed on election night by news organizations are projections based on available data but do not equate to official results until the necessary certification processes are completed.
Ultimately, as the election day approaches, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this crucial event reflects the complex nature of the electoral system in the United States, as well as the high stakes involved in the 2024 presidential race. The public is advised to stay informed through reliable news sources and to engage in discussions about the implications of these elections, as they will shape the future direction of the nation.