However, that trend was reversed as of January, when the sales streak began. Throughout the first month of the year, the Central sold a total of $190 million and, in the first 14 days of February, they reached $500 million, but this Wednesday it made the largest disbursement in the Mercado Único y Libre of Changes (MULC) of the year, for US$292 million. So, BCRA sales throughout this month they are located around US$790 million.
The BCRA made the biggest daily sale of the year
This Wednesday’s was also the biggest daily sale since november last year and responds that a payment of energy import for US$262 million corresponding to an advance purchase program for this input (more precisely LNG, liquefied gas), which began to be implemented this Wednesday and which, according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy, will allow savings of around US$2. 100 million.
“In this way, the US$3,465 million that Argentina was going to spend is reduced to US$1,313 million, generating a saving of currency outflow for Argentina and in fiscal matters, of more than $500,000 million,” he said. the ministry.
According to official sources Scopethe payment of this Wednesday was “the first impact on the market of these purchases and the handling of the reservations allows us to face these payments”. And they assured that the negative balance that is observed at the moment is within the projections that are handled.
In this sense, they assured that they will be able to face the payment of imports and energy and ruled out that it is necessary to generate a recession to curb imports and show reserve accumulation at this stage of the year.
Concerned regarding the goals of the IMF
However, the concern of various analysts in the City at this time is that the BCRA will have difficulties meeting the reserve goal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the current rate of sales. It needs $1.7 billion to meet that goal, according to market estimates.
“Even assuming that The IMF ‘brings its bow closer’ to the BCRA Lowering the goal due to the situation of wheat, which is usually the main source of foreign exchange during these months and the harvest (in quantities) would fall by almost 45% compared to the previous one due to the drought, the panorama is complex”, says the economist from the consulting firm Invecq, Juan Pablo Albornoz.
That is why most market voices point out that “they are going to have to invent something” so that more dollars enter in the coming months, although the Government has recently denied the implementation of a soybean dollar 3, at least for the moment.
Is the new soybean dollar coming or is it removing withholdings?
The question is what might they do? And, Albornoz points out that “some say that might implement a temporary drop in withholdings”, but warns that it is difficult for this to come true due to “the fiscal impact that this might generate”, in a context in which the Government also has deficit targets to meet.
This is a key difference with the implementation of a differential exchange rate, such as soybeans 1 or 2, which have also had an impact on the quasi-fiscal deficit they generate and their consequent negative effect on the BCRA balance.
The big problem, as stated by the EcoGo economist Lucio Garay Méndez, is that “once the Government offered the ‘carrot’ to be liquidated, as was the payment of a differential exchange rate, expectations are adapted.” He assures that this is what is happening today: the exporters advanced sales, on the one hand, and, on the other, they wait for a new incentive to liquidate”.
Meanwhile, the field liquidate the essentials“, says. And this occurs in a context in which the countryside is facing a drought, which means that there will be a lower supply of foreign currency, and on top of that, it has a quarterly goal in March with the IMF.
In this sense, Garay Méndez also points out that they should launch some measure to reverse the situation and points out that “a new soybean dollar makes more sense than a reduction in withholdings because, although it is the same for the exporter, it is not the same for the treasury in a context of fiscal weakness”.
In conclusion, analysts expect that the trend will remain a seller for the Central as long as it does not grant incentives and everything indicates that it would become a buyer if they resume this type of policy, as it has done since the arrival of Sergio Massa at the Ministry of Economy.
