2024-10-03 02:38:53
After the National Council election on Sunday, the remaining postal votes will be counted on Thursday. This will only bring marginal changes, but according to the election researchers at Foresight, a mandate could possibly still move – from the FPÖ to the ÖVP. However, nothing will change in terms of the percentage shares and the balance of power. The final result is expected to be available in the evening hours.
In this National Council election, the 2023 electoral law reform took effect for the first time: This means that the majority of postal votes were already counted on Sunday. According to the election researchers at the Foresight Institute, around 80 percent of the voting cards issued were probably counted on Sunday. Since the reform, the remaining (postal) voting cards – probably around 15 percent of all issued – have been evaluated on Monday (the majority) and Thursday (the rest). Experience shows that another five percent of the cards are not used.
According to Monday’s count, the election winner FPÖ currently has 57 seats (+26), the ÖVP has 51 (-20), the SPÖ has 41 (+1), the NEOS has 18 (+3) and the Greens has 16 seats (-10). Even including the electoral map forecast from APA/ORF/Foresight, the parties are at these mandate levels. However, the forecast before Thursday’s round still contains a fluctuation range of 0.2 percentage points, there is still a certain amount of leeway. It is possible that a mandate will still move from the FPÖ to the ÖVP.
But if the current status remains, Black-Red would only have one mandate surplus with a total of 92 mandates. Blue-Black would then still have a comfortable majority for a two-party coalition with 108 mandates, although ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer does not want to work with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl. The variant with the Freedom Party, which was excluded by the SPÖ, could also count on a majority of 98 seats.
In percentage terms, according to the preliminary results including the postal vote forecast, the FPÖ is at 28.8 percent, the ÖVP at 26.3 percent. The SPÖ is at 21.1 percent, the NEOS at 9.2 percent and the Greens at 8.3 percent. The beer party (2 percent), the KPÖ (2.4), the Madeleine Petrovic list and the NONE list (0.6 percent each) failed.
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