“In December, the epidemic prevention and control policy was adjusted, and the auto market’s replenishment effect appeared. As various consumption promotion policies are about to expire, it is a growth window for the auto market in various places.” On December 23, the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference (referred to as ” According to the latest data released by the Passenger Federation), the overall market discount rate of passenger cars in mid-December was about 14.7%, and the overall level of profit sharing was higher than that of the previous month (14.2%), and the terminal rushed to deliver cars by the end of the year.
According to the retail target survey in December, the manufacturers accounting for about 80% of the overall market increased slightly year-on-year. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow-sense passenger car retail market in December was about 2.2 million, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, of which new energy retail sales were about 700,000 , a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, with a penetration rate of approximately 31.8%.
12Monthly car market demand released
According to data released by the Passenger Federation, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense reached 1.65 million in November, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.4%. The orders accumulated in the early stage of the new energy market continued to be released before the subsidy expired at the end of the year. The monthly retail sales were 598,000, a year-on-year increase of 58.3% and a month-on-month increase of 7.8%. The penetration rate reached 36.2%, a new high.
Since December, the epidemic prevention and control measures have been adjusted, and the auto market has suppressed rigid demand in the early stage and quickly replenished. The daily averages of the first, second, and third weeks of retail sales by major manufacturers were -24%, 5%, and 18% year-on-year, respectively. As the end of the year approaches, the fuel vehicle purchase tax incentives and new energy subsidy policies are about to expire, and the terminal maintains a fast pace of vehicle delivery. It is expected that the market will continue its growth trend in the third week in the fourth week.
“Considering the arrival of infection peaks in various places, consumer behavior is more cautious, and gathering activities and travels have decreased, the tail effect at the end of the year may be suppressed.” The Federation of Travel Associations predicts that the average daily retail sales in the fifth week of December is expected to be the same as last year. It is estimated that retail sales in December will reach 2.2 million.
According to the analysis of the Federation of Passengers, the improvement of epidemic prevention policies will help stabilize consumer confidence and promote consumption recovery in the long run. The previously suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released steadily. The auto market policy adjustment at the end of the year is imminent, and the strong stimulus policy of halving the purchase tax of fuel vehicles has a significant driving effect. The steady improvement of fuel vehicles has formed a strong support for the sales at the end of the year. Under the impact of the short-term epidemic, the attendance rate of terminal sales personnel in the local auto market and the passenger flow of terminals entering the store will become important observation indicators for the popularity of the auto market.
Withdrawal of state subsidy pushes some users to buy in advance
It is worth mentioning that, judging from the estimated data in December, the demand in the new energy vehicle market is still relatively strong, and the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies at the end of the year will still promote the early purchase behavior of some new energy users.
In response to the decline in subsidies, various new energy companies have successively introduced time-limited price protection measures. “The price increases announced by BYD and GAC E’an are all smaller than the subsidy quota that will be withdrawn at the end of the year, laying a good foundation for next year’s order collection.” Said the Federation of Passengers.
In addition to BYD and GAC Aian, other new energy car companies have recently announced price increases. On December 22, Ruilan Automobile announced that due to the double impact of the upcoming withdrawal of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy and the continued sharp rise in global raw material prices, all electric vehicles (except Ruilan 9) will be released at 0:00 on January 1 next year. The price will be adjusted starting from 5,000-8,000 yuan, and the price adjustment of specific models will be notified separately. In addition, Changan Automobile announced that Changan Lumin is expected to raise its official guide price on January 1 next year. Among them, the price increase of the 301-kilometer range model is as high as 6,000 yuan.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Passenger Association, told reporters that as BYD took the lead in announcing price increases, a small number of other new energy vehicle manufacturers may follow suit. Affected by the decline in subsidies, mainstream car companies will have a wave of price increases early next year. not big. Cui Dongshu believes that it is unlikely that there will be a wave of large-scale price cuts at the end of this year. After the withdrawal of the state subsidy, if car companies lower prices and then raise prices, they will be in a passive position, which is not conducive to the development of sales.
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