2023-07-20 07:12:00
The pre-election tensionthe delay in announcing the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)), the delay compared to the inflation and the increase in monetary liquidity are some of the causes of the rise of the blue dollaraccording to some economists.
The Economist Gabriel Caamanofrom the consultancy Ledesma, opined that the blue dollar at $525 “it’s not that he’s very crazy or off the hook with respect to the rise in prices in the first semester”.
Speaking to the agency THATadded that “It’s not that he was asleep and now he’s waking upbut clearly what each is that is motorized with the rest of the prices, for now it’s nothing dramaticwhich does not mean that if there is a shock or something unforeseen it cannot take an abrupt jump,” he added.
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Caamaño pointed out that “It is not higher because the Central Bank continues to intervene in the MEP dollar and does not let it take off”, considering that financial exchange rates have a greater impact on inflation than the blue dollar.
Elections, inflation and IMF, the causes of the rise of the blue dollar
For his part, Victor Beckerdirector of the Center for the Study of the New Economy of the University of Belgrano, believe that “if one compares the dollar with inflation, it undoubtedly fell behind And at some point it has to recover.”
The economist opined that “also the uncertainty such as the lack of news regarding the resolution of the agreement with the IMF, with which the signature announced so many times is never reached.”
Beker pointed out that “when there is more liquidity, such as the collection of the bonus or that injected by the Central Bank, people want to protect their assets with the dollar, in addition to the fact that we are in the pre-electoral period, in which this phenomenon also occurs ” .
Speaking to THAT considered that the Central Bank “does not have many weapons to stop the free dollar, if we see that had to turn to China to pay the IMFwhich adds more uncertainty“.
“Today the reserves are so scarce and it’s not supposed to be dedicated to influencing the parallel market, although at times it did,” Beker added.
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For his part, the financial analyst Christian Butleraffirmed that “the market is being seen dollarizing before the elections“.
“It had slowed down a bit with the possible agreement with the IMF, but now versions are coming out saying that it is a temporary agreement and it seems that they will not have the funds that they had said,” Buteler commented.
He added that the Central Bank “does not stop losing reserves and continues issuing pesos to assist the Treasury, which means more pesos on the street that will put pressure on the exchange market.
“The price of blue at almost $530 doesn’t sound like a cheap dollar to mebut the uncertainty in the market is great and that increases the pressure on the demand for parallel dollars even more and it is quickly reflected in the prices,” added the analyst.
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