2023-12-17 20:08:48
Behind the great ambitions displayed by the COPs, lies a completely different reality: that of the voted texts which arouse a lot of hope, but which are in fact full of exemptions and conditionals. This COP28 was no exception to the rule.
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[EN VIDÉO] Will COP28 change the world? The COP28 which opens in Dubai under the leadership of Sultan Al-Jaber, also leader…
COP28 has just ended with the ratification of an international text on the gradual exit from fossil fuels by 2050. But one of the great innovations of this COP is the one that was presented to leaders around the world from the start. start of the event: for the first time, an official assessment of climate actions carried out in recent years was presented, and this was confronted with the real needs in terms of environmental policy.
A big step forward, but also a “ moment of schizophreniaschizophrenia » according to the public statement of Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, climate physicist and IPCC author. “ This recognizes the many, huge gaps between what is needed and what has been done to date, and as a result, absolutely NO decisions are being made.”.
In this report, we find 115 times the terms “ recognize “ et « to note “but only 5 times the term “ decide “. « There is a total disconnect between diagnosisdiagnosis and treatment. The diagnosis is potentially fatal cancer, due to excessive consumption of fossil fuels. The prescribed treatment is a mixture of positive thoughts and magic,” explains the author of the IPCC.
Contrary to the voted texts, the climate system has no flexibility
In an official letter sent to COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber, climatologistclimatologist Michael E. Mann, also author of the IPCC and professor at the University of Pennsylvania, nevertheless invoked the need for a real action plan. “ The climate system has no flexibility: it obeys the laws of nature (physicsphysics, chemistrychemistry, and biology)”. The scientist recognizes that adaptation is necessary, but that it will be extremely difficult to implement beyond a warming of +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
“Keeping alive the objective of limiting warming to +1.5°C is essential to make adaptation possible”. In order not to go beyond what he calls “ this red line », the rampant increase in CO2 emissions must stop by 2050 at the latest. And for this to happen, the most developed regions of the world, such as the United States and Europe, must make efforts well before 2050. By this deadline, this means that carbon neutrality must already have been achieved: “ Each ton of CO2 emitted must be absorbed sustainably”.
But in just 25 years, how can such a change be made? “ This does not only involve renewable energies, but through a gradual elimination of all fossil fuels, coal, oil, gas, and a total halt to deforestationdeforestation by 2050. A small fraction of the fossil fuels that we currently used can continue to be used, provided that their emissions are captured and sequestered 100% permanently”. And to get there, “ all humanity must agree” on these points at the same time.
If, for once, the gradual exit from fossil fuels was clearly announced in the official texts of COP28, whatever the new text voted on, if the substance is different, the form remains the same. The use of the conditional is always almost systematic and the signed agreements all have the same flaw: the absence of sanctions and real constraints.
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