Washington.-With one candidate shot and another dropping out of the race amid rumors about his ability to govern, one of the most dramatic campaigns in U.S. history is entering its most heated stretch.
With 90 days to go until the crucial November 5 elections, Republicans and Democrats are sharpening their strategies for a tight battle that threatens to become fiercer by the day, with personal attacks and disputes over key regions, while the world is waiting to see who will lead the world’s leading power.
The necessary formalities have been completed: Donald Trump and his vice president JD Vance are the Republican candidates, while the Democratic ticket has been confirmed with the nomination of Kamala Harris and her newly appointed vice president, Governor Tim Walz.
It is extraordinary that less than three months before the presidential elections we only just know who is facing whom. But now that everything is on the table: What can happen? What strategy will they use? What chances do they have of winning?
Tuesday’s announcement of the selection of Minnesota governor Walz as Harris’ vice president has triggered a race for the White House that has been turbulent and scattered since the assassination attempt on Trump and Joe Biden’s refusal to seek re-election.
The tycoon had his golden moment in mid-July after the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, where he was surrounded by his supporters after the attack by a young man who grazed his ear and from which he emerged bleeding, with his fist raised, in a photo that showed him as a leader of extraordinary force.
Polls then gave him a few points lead over Biden, but the gap was widening in his favour in key states. Trump tried to show a message of unity, although he often returned to his aggressive tone.
But Biden’s resignation radically changed the landscape. With Harris at the helm, the first black and Indian-American candidate, the Democrats seemed to be revived with an overwhelming dose of energy that manifested itself in US$300 million in donations in just a few days and a renewed enthusiasm among women, young people and African Americans.
Harris was nicknamed “brat,” a cool label derived from the name of an album by pop star Charli XCX, a bright green color. The candidate was trending on social media with her dancing and her raucous laughter. Party events began to fill up with voters who were disenchanted with Biden and Trump.
And the choice of Walz, a man born in a rural town, a teacher and football coach and former military man who likes to hunt and fish, added great appeal to the white, rural male electorate that usually votes for Trump. And also, because of his progressive management as governor of Minnesota, it allows him to preserve the bases of his party and present him as a champion of the rural middle class, but with liberal ideas.
Walz, a virtual national unknown, gained popularity in recent days by calling Trump and Vance “weird” because they portray themselves as men who understand working people when in reality they are millionaires educated at elite universities.
Republicans felt the shock. They are disoriented and do not know how to stem the tide in the polls. Today, an average of RealClearPolitics polls shows Harris already one point ahead of Trump nationwide, while she has closed the gap in key states where Democrats were far behind, such as Pennsylvania (Trump leads her by 1.8%), Wisconsin (a technical tie) and Michigan (Harris wins by 2 points).
Zachary Peskowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, told Clarín that “campaigns will likely focus their dollars and candidate visits on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These are three states that the Harris-Walz ticket must win since Trump can almost certainly secure the presidency by winning one of these districts.”
But how are Republicans trying to reposition themselves in the face of the Democratic advance? Party strategists advise Trump to target Harris for the economy or for her inconsistency on some issues from her past as a prosecutor.
But the tycoon always attacked her for her character (he called her “crazy” and “stupid”), for her gender and for her black ancestry, an offensive similar to his previous campaigns, when, for example, he questioned Barack Obama’s nationality.
Clearly, the aggressive style so typical of the tycoon may charm his most fervent supporters, but it does not seduce the more moderate and independent electorate.
“At the end of the day, the core of this election is about economic issues. Any time you don’t talk about that, you lose the opportunity to attract independent voters,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “Independents always decide who wins elections.”
And what can be expected from now on? “It will be a controversial campaign, with negative attacks from Trump and Vance more than from the Democratic candidates,” Paul Beck, a professor at Ohio State University and expert on political campaigns, told Clarín.
“The Democrats’ strategy will be to portray Republicans as ‘weird’ and outside the mainstream of American politics. In contrast, Republicans will seek to portray the Democratic ticket as ultra-liberal. PACS (independent political action committees of the candidates) will spend even more money and their ads will be more negative, even ruthless,” he predicted.
Walz’s appointment offers Republicans an opportunity to unify a message that today seems chaotic and scattered. And this is already evident in these hours. Although Walz has adopted moderate policies during his time in Congress, during his term as governor he promoted measures favorable to the right to abortion, the inclusion of the LGTBQ community and the provision of food in schools, among other progressive policies that are not well received by Republicans.
“He is a very left-wing man, practically the same as Bernie Sanders,” Trump attacked in an interview with Fox News, and said that he “has never seen anything like it.” And that the Harris-Waltz ticket “will take the United States to communism immediately” if they win. He also said that the governor “is a smarter version of Harris,” one of his typical sexist attacks.Clarín.
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2024-08-11 01:33:29
