Xinhua News Agency, New York, January 18 (international observation) hit a seven-year high, the prospect of international oil prices rising
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Yanan
Affected by factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, international oil prices have been rising recently. Crude oil futures prices in the New York market hit their highest level since October 2014 during intraday trading on the 18th. Market analysts believe that the imbalance between supply and demand in the crude oil market is expected to strengthen, and the international oil price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short and medium term, but in the long run, it will be affected by multiple factors, and all parties have different views on the trend.
As of the close on the 18th, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for February 2022 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.61 to close at $85.43 a barrel, an increase of 1.92%; London Brent crude oil futures for March 2022 delivery Prices rose $1.45, or 1.68%, to settle at $87.51 a barrel.
Analysts believe that oil prices hit a seven-year high mainly driven by two factors.
On the one hand, the tension between Russia and Ukraine has not eased, and the security situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, exacerbating market concerns regarding the reduction or even interruption of supply from major oil and gas producers.
On the 17th, a fuel tanker explosion and a fire at an airport construction site occurred in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, causing many casualties. After investigation, the explosion may have been caused by a drone attack. The UAE, the third-largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is seen as facing a real risk of disruption to crude supplies.
In addition to concerns regarding the hit to oil infrastructure, markets are also eyeing Iran nuclear talks progress. As the negotiation time passes, the risk of the deterioration of the security situation in the region is increasing, and the risk premium brought by the situation in the Middle East to oil prices will be more concerned.
On the other hand, as the impact of the mutated new coronavirus Omicron strain on crude oil demand is not as severe as expected, the market’s expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market in the first quarter of 2022 has changed.
As air travel reopens, fuel supplies will tighten and global crude demand will approach record highs, said Phil Flynn, a market analyst at Price Futures Group.
Looking forward to the trend of oil prices, most research institutions believe that oil prices will maintain a rising trend in the short term.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently raised its forecast for the average Brent crude futures price in 2022 to $75 a barrel from $70.
The report released by Goldman Sachs Group in the United States believes that the impact of the epidemic on crude oil demand is mild and short-lived, and the market supply gap will be very large. to $105 a barrel.
By the summer of 2022, Goldman Sachs expects oil inventories in OECD members to fall to their lowest levels since 2000, and remaining oil capacity in major producers to record lows.
Flynn said that as oil prices rise, the Federal Reserve will take steps to combat inflationary pressures. If rising energy prices bring regarding an economic recession, it may backfire on the fundamental support of oil prices.
Contrary to Goldman Sachs’ optimistic forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration report expects Brent crude futures to average $68 a barrel in 2023, while Citigroup expects Brent oil prices to fall to $54 a barrel over the same period.
(Editor in charge: Cai Qing)
