The pro-Russian separatists of Transnistria, a possible new source of tension for Moldova and Ukraine |

The secessionist region of Transnistria, internationally recognized as part of Moldova, might add new tensions to the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. A congress of deputies from all local administrative levels has been convened for February 28 in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria. Secessionists have resorted to this meeting format only on important occasions, beginning with their unilateral declaration of independence in 1990.

According to Ghenadie Ciorba, a dissident politician from Transnistria, the congress will turn to Russia to ask it to welcome the secessionist region into its territory. Such a request, if confirmed, would reiterate the call that the Transnistria authorities already made in 2006 following a referendum in which, according to them, 97% of the local population voted in favor of integration with Russia, despite not having a common border. . Russia did not recognize the consultation and so far has not recognized Transnistria as a state.

Sources consulted in Tiraspol and Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, believed that the congress will be limited to propaganda and provocative gestures towards both Moldova and Ukraine. Moscow, they emphasize, cannot provide support to Transnistria or access that territory without first conquering the Ukrainian city of Odessa. President Vladimir Putin has sometimes referred to the large Black Sea port city as a “Russian city.”

“Odessa is coming home,” former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev recently said. “In the Russian Federation we have been waiting for Odessa. Because of the history of this city, because of the people who live there and because of the language they speak, this is our Russian, Russian city,” Medvedev added.

“The Russians do not have the capacity to conquer Odessa now, so they better leave us alone and we will receive them when they come,” sources from Tiraspol ironically said.

Vadim Krasnoselski, the president of Transnistria and the official promoter of the congress, has so far prevented the region from being involved in the war conflict in Ukraine and has even stopped initiatives to support the Russian cause from the left bank of the Dniester, sources point out. in Tiraspol. Furthermore, Krasnoselski recently received the Ukrainian ambassador to Moldova, to whom he offered help in transporting Ukrainian grain blocked by Russia. The Ukrainian representative expressed the desire to reopen the kyiv consulate in the Transnistria region within the framework of the Ukrainian representation in Moldova.

“If Russia recognized us and included us in its territory, we would become a legal target for Ukraine, like Belgorod and other border regions in western Russia,” adds a source from Tiraspol, according to whom the February 28 congress seems more in line with Russian interests than with the interests of Transnistria and its inhabitants.

In the call for the event, Krasnoselski has alleged “pressure from Moldova” that “violates the rights and worsens the socioeconomic situation of the inhabitants of Transnistria.” The politician is referring to new customs regulations in Moldova through which international trade from Transnistria (whose industry also exports to the EU) has lost some tax privileges that it obtained from Chisinau as part of a policy of seduction to reintegrate the separatist region. Transnistria’s international trade is now carried out on equal terms with the rest of Moldovan trade. Between the representatives of Moldova and those of Transnistria there continue to be regular contacts supported by a dialogue platform of which Russia has been a member, together with the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Lack of recognition

In 2022, Moscow recognized the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk as states and used their requests for help as a pretext to invade Ukraine. The next step was to incorporate the occupied territories into the Russian Federation through pseudo-referendums. In the case of Transnistria, there is neither recognition nor border by Moscow.

The convening of the congress might respond to Moscow’s needs to keep Moldova, a candidate country for joining the European Union, in check, and in the same process initiated by Ukraine that the Kremlin tried so hard to stop. Transnistria is located mostly between the left bank of the Dniester River and Ukraine. The war on the territory of this country has greatly hindered communications and harmed trade and labor migration from Transnistria to Russia.

Since Moldovan citizens can move freely within the European Union, the inhabitants of Transnistria have made use of this possibility and have learned to value Moldovan passports, and, what is more, they sometimes also look for Romanian ancestors who allow them to access a passport. of this nationality.

Populated mainly by Slavs (Russians and Ukrainians) and pro-Russian Moldovans, Transnistria, whose actual decreasing population is today estimated to be less than 500,000 inhabitants, broke away from Moldova in 1990 in response to the pro-Romanian policy then practiced by the leaders of that Soviet republic. After armed clashes in July 1992, the leaders of Moldova, Transnistria and Russia, Mircea Snegur, Igor Smirnov and Boris Yeltsin, reached agreements that, with fluctuations, have kept the situation on the ground, where it is located, stabilized. a contingent of nearly 1,600 Russian soldiers with limited possibilities for action. Moldova demands the withdrawal of that contingent that guards important magazines from the Soviet era. In 1999, Russia promised to remove the ammunition, but that promise was not kept. Over time, ammunition has deteriorated, and so has the military contingent, due to difficulties in personnel rotations.

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