- On the shelves of stores and other supermarkets, the price of a bottle of orange juice has increased by around 30%, according to the Agricultural Cooperation.
- One of the reasons for this price increase, the production of juice oranges in Brazil and Florida has fallen sharply, and juice stocks are following the same trend. In question, the spread of “dragon disease”, a bacterium transmitted by an insect, which infects trees and kills them.
- In addition to this decrease in stock, manufacturers are suffering from the increase in the cost of raw materials, and must pass it on to the selling price. An increase that is not always accepted by distributors, depending on the brand.
To the question “Have you noticed an increase in the price of orange juice?” », hard to say no. Firstly because, as everyone knows, the price of food as a whole has undergone a dizzying increase of around 15% in one year. But also because orange juice is a special case. Current inflation is not, in fact, the only factor that has led to the rise in its prices on world markets since last summer. “In 2022, a tonne of orange concentrate was worth around $2,100,” says Eric Imbert, researcher at Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD). Currently, in 2023, it is around $2,700. »
On the shelves, the feeling is almost immediate. Last February, Quentin Mathieu, economics manager at the Agricultural cooperation, estimated that an increase of 50 to 60% on the price of orange juice was expected in stores at the beginning of the year. But today, he has revised his numbers downward. “The increase goes up to 30%,” he says. But why has your bottle of Tropicana or Paquito cost more for the past few months? 20 Minutes make the point.
Inventory drop
If prices are skyrocketing, the decline in inventory is to blame. “Juice stock in June 2022 has never been so low since 2017,” says Eric Imbert. By zooming in on the Brazilthe world leader in the production of juice oranges with Florida in the UNITED STATES, we see that only 126,500 tonnes of orange juice were stored in June 2022, compared to 311,000 in June 2021, according to figures provided by CIRAD. The stock for the year 2017 was only 19.5 tons less.
Please note that these figures only concern the concentrated juice, as this is the most produced and sold recipe. “Pure juice only represents 15 to 20% of the world orange juice market”, specifies Quentin Mathieu.
If we look at the side of the orange harvest, the situation is not really better. Still according to figures provided by CIRAD – Brazilian and Floridian production combined – the 2022-2023 season made it possible to fill 333 million crop crates (crates containing harvested fruit), compared to 311 million in 2021-2022. However, in comparison, 454.1 million culture crates were filled in the 2019-2020 season.
Natural disasters and disease
The causes of the fall in the production oforanges, and therefore juice stock, are actually quite old. “The Floridian basin has seen a drastic drop in production over the past ten years due to numerous hurricanes,” says Quentin Mathieu. And then there is the dragon disease “. This bacteriosis, transmitted by a small insect called the psylla, inoculates trees with “greening”, an incurable disease. The leaves of the tree turn yellow, its fruits turn green, become bitter, and it eventually dies.
If the disease has been raging since the 2000s in the United States, its ravages have been significant during the last season. And financially, orange growers cannot count on the State of Florida to support them. “American aid is concentrated on field crops or livestock,” says Quentin Mathieu.
“Dragon disease” is also widespread on Brazilian territory, but Quentin Mathieu recognizes that the country is “fairly advanced in genetics”, and limits the damage by using “phytosanitary means to protect plantations from diseases “. A number of pesticides are sprayed and infected orange trees are otherwise uprooted
The rise in prices also suffered by manufacturers
Another factor: that of the explosion in the prices of raw materials due to the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, in shortinflation (6% over one year, according to INSEE). “The cost of packaging and materials have increased by 50 to 80%,” says Quentin Mathieu. The margin generated by manufacturers has therefore weakened, forcing them to increase the price of their bottles.
But this year (early March), negotiations with distributors were troubled by this particular context. “Brands with significant market power – like Tropicana, Paquito, Joker – got their price increases through smoothly. Other brands, on the other hand, have been threatened with being removed or put on the shelves if they do not lower their prices, ”explains the expert from Agricultural Cooperation.
Paradoxically, “the consumption of orange juice is globally decreasing, explains Eric Imbert. Because it is a sweet product and which is not necessarily recommended for health, it is particularly not well seen in the United States. »