2023-10-11 13:59:52
Yanis Darras // Photo credit: DAVID MCNEW / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP
The horror. This Saturday, terrorists from the Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas, entered Israeli soil in the early morning. Particularly well organized, they killed at least 1,200 people, the vast majority of them civilians, including 250 young people partying at a rave party held not far from the border with the Gaza Strip. Faced with this attack, Israel was quick to react and has been increasing strikes on the territory since Saturday. At least 1,055 residents of the Gaza Strip have lost their lives since the resumption of the conflict.
The foreign ministers of Arab countries announced that they would meet this Wednesday to discuss solutions to end the conflict. But will this new war have impacts on energy prices, as during the Yom Kippur War between Arab countries and Israel in 1973?
Limited effects on prices…
“If the conflict remains limited to Gaza and Israel, the economic consequences will be relatively limited, because the latter mainly pass through the prices of raw materials, and in particular energy raw materials such as gas and oil,” explains, on the microphone from Europe 1, Xavier Timbeau, economist, director of the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE).
“Israel and Palestine intervene very little in the energy markets. There is nevertheless a little Israeli gas which is exported to Egypt and which is then liquefied to be transported around the world. But the volumes are small” , he continues.
…Unless the conflict spreads to the region
“But if the situation embraces itself” and involves other players, then oil and gas prices could be much more volatile, continues the economist. “If this spreads to Iran, then the consequences could be much greater.” Particularly at issue is the Strait of Hormuz, partly controlled by Tehran, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Indian Ocean. Here, in 2018, the equivalent of 20 million barrels circulated every day to meet global demand.
“A lot of oil flows through this strait, which is narrow and very easy to block. The risk is that if there are one or two tankers attacked and they sink, it could block traffic in the area. Certainly, there may be American intervention in the strait to protect it. But there will be oil supply difficulties with immediate tensions which will have strong consequences on prices, which will increase rapidly at the pump, concludes. -he.
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