The price of Bitcoin has fallen to the lowest level not seen since the beginning of 2024

The price of Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since February 2024.

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant drop in the past 24 hours, with market capitalization down nearly 10% daily.

Bitcoin price low

Most leading digital assets are in the red, and few have escaped the negative trend.

The week’s most important cryptocurrency news in one place

The German government’s recent activity in the Bitcoin market has led to significant selling pressure, causing the price of BTC to fall by 18% over the past 30 days. Justin Sun, founder of the TRON blockchain and CEO of BitTorrent, has offered to mitigate the impact of the ongoing Bitcoin selloff by purchasing Germany’s $2 billion Bitcoin stockpile.

US District Court for the District of Columbia Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled that cryptocurrencies are not securities. The secondary sale of BNB tokens also does not qualify as their trade. The court found that the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) did not prove that buyers participating in the secondary market sale acquired the BNB for no other purpose than to make a profit. This is one of the key criteria for meeting the Howey test (the legal framework outlined by the Supreme Court for determining whether a transaction qualifies as an investment contract).

With the acquisition of Amber Japan, the Japanese subsidiary of the global Amber Group, Sony Group has officially entered the crypto exchange segment. This move is part of Sony’s strategy to diversify its portfolio.

Europe’s largest Bitcoin mining company, Northern Data AG announced that it is planning an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States at a value of between 10 and 16 billion dollars. The stock market launch, which will be carried out on the Nasdaq stock exchange, is planned for the first half of 2025. A minority stake may be sold to investors before the public launch. After the news was announced, Northern Data’s shares on the XETRA exchange rose by more than 5%.

Analysts say the worst is yet to come

Bitcoin plunged to $53,000 early Friday, but analysts warn that the worst may be yet to come.

According to experts, the price of Bitcoin may even drop below $50,000. However, due to strong macroeconomic conditions and the ingrained “buy the dip” mentality, all is not lost in the BTC market.

Bitcoin fell to $53,600 on the Coinbase crypto exchange on July 5. It traded at this level for the first time since February. Although the price has since rebounded to the 54-55 thousand dollar zone, this still represents a 13% drop in 24 hours.

Analysts said much of the sell-off was due to fears over Mt. Gox’s creditor repayments. Around $8 billion worth of BTC could hit the market in July, which could cause the price of Bitcoin to decline further in the coming days.

“The mood now is much more bearish than optimistic. The selling activity we are seeing is clearly unsettling investors, which often leads to more selling,” said the eToro analyst.

For this reason, it is possible that next week, the Bitcoin price will fall below the $50,000 level, a key psychological level for the future.

“We expect to see weakness in the short term until we get a catalyst that drives the price up,” he added.

Similarly, Swyftx analyst Pav Hundal said the worst is yet to come for Bitcoin’s price action.

“Bitcoin will soon face massive selling pressure in an already apathetic market.”

Macro conditions remain positive in the long term. But in the short term, we could see testing of the 50k and potentially lower levels. Now $52,000 has become the most important support in terms of BTC price trajectory.

What nobody wants to talk about

Mt. Gox victim payout of $8.2 billion puts additional selling pressure on Bitcoin price.

According to the analyst, on-chain movements indicate that Mt. Gox’s creditors have already started selling.

Mt.Gox bitcoin sales

An analyst on X shared the image above with the following thought:

“No Bitcoiner will say it out loud, but most of the $8.2 billion BTC supply will be sold by ex-customers.”

Let’s not forget that these customers have been waiting almost 10 years to get their Bitcoins, which has brought them huge profits over the years.

Why would they wait any longer?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin showed a downward trend throughout June. In the second quarter of 2024, it already recorded a loss of almost 18%.

Bitcoin exchange rate fall

But the inventory sold by Mt. Gox’s creditors could potentially push Bitcoin back into bear market territory, the analyst said.

“I understand this is controversial, but with the current low demand, this event could easily send BTC back into a severe bear market.”

The last quarter may bring a turnaround in the market

Despite the short-term bearish outlook, investors have several reasons to keep an eye on the long-term time horizon.

Several catalysts can reverse the exchange rate trend in the last quarter:

  • Full acceptance of an Ethereum ETF by the SEC would be a significant boost for the crypto market, especially if more altcoin ETFs follow suit.
  • A possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and December could be a good basis for the inflow of venture capital.
  • And the election of pro-Bitcoin Donald Trump could put the sector on a completely new level.

Where can the bitcoin price fall stop?

In addition to the long-term view, everyone is now undeniably looking for where the fall of the Bitcoin exchange rate can stop.

For popular trader Matthew Hyland, the radar is now on the $52,000 support.

This forms the bottom of the Bitcoin Supertrend Indicator on the weekly time frames. This provides a base from the price since the all-time high of $73,800 reached in mid-March.

Bitcoin supertrend indicator

The Supertrend line demarcates the buy and sell phases of BTC/USD. The pair has been above the supertrend line since the end of 2022. This is when Bitcoin’s last bear market ended.

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Looking at previous Bitcoin bull markets, the current decline is still modest compared to all-time highs.

Bitcoin exchange rate pullbacks

Since 2016, BTC/USD has dropped 38% several times during the uptrend. Based on this, the capitulation target could be somewhere around $45,750. This is the level where the price was at when the Blackrock ETF was announced, from where it started to rise last fall.

Commenting on the phenomenon, Blockstream founder Adam Back criticized the volatile market sentiment. In his opinion, Bitcoin holders now have an opportunity to increase their exposure to Bitcoin and MicroStrategy stocks. Microstrategy is the publicly traded company with the largest supply of BTC. The company’s share price fell by 25% in the last 1 month, but it is still up 100% in the half-year time frame.

“As a reminder, let’s look a little further. In the case of the previous upward trend, a decrease of more than -30% occurred half a dozen times. Now we are only at -26%,” he wrote on X.

In fact, the recent pullbacks look less deep because people are forgetting the usual bull market pattern. You shouldn’t panic.

Bitcoin history repeats itself

Amidst the restless atmosphere, the extent of the decline was analyzed by popular trader and analyst, Rekt Capital.

BTC USD graphics

This pullback resulted in -21% over the past 45 days. In this cycle, the average retracement depth is -22%, and the average retracement duration is 42 days, he calculated.

“Given the retracement depth, this can be said to be average market behavior. In terms of withdrawal duration, it was above average.”

In the long run, he added in another X post alongside a comparison chart, BTC’s price history repeats itself.

BTC USD exchange rate comparisonBTC/USD Comparison Chart. Source: Rekt Capital

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