The face of Biden’s visit
The Arab-American summit is supposed to lead to one of two options: Washington and Tehran to renew negotiations in pursuit of an agreement. Thus, Biden’s visit would be a kind of reassurance to the Israelis and the Gulf states, and to the preservation of strategic American relations to restore or reassert some kind of trust. However, in the absence of serious indications for the signing of the nuclear agreement, the region must witness a definite escalation.
The position of the Secretary-General of Hezbollah may be the starting point for the escalation. Nasrallah went too far in his equations to impose a new reality: moving the party from defense to attack.
Do not control the will of war
The main combustible file in the region is the file of the demarcation of the Lebanese border with Israel, and the Israelis’ insistence on ignoring the Lebanese conditions and proceeding with the process of extracting oil and gas from the Karish field. Hezbollah may resort to abiding by its threat, and the region will turn to escalation: either it will witness a war, or a battle, or a confrontation smaller than a war.
It is true that no one wants war. But all too often war is not the result of desire, will, or determination. Any miscalculation or a blow out of context, could lead to an explosion. This is what the Americans are trying to avoid and insist on. They intensify efforts to calm down, and the US State Department emphasizes the positive atmosphere in order to reach an agreement.
Hezbollah leads Lebanon
The American attempts to separate the official Lebanese position from that of Hezbollah are not hidden. This entitlement may test the ability of some parties in Lebanon to break out of the party’s control. He succeeded repeatedly in strengthening his internal situation, consolidating his legitimacy, and opening new horizons for the next stage under his leadership, which is that whoever aspires to any political position must agree to and adopt Hezbollah’s discourse.
This rule applies to any candidate seeking the presidency. This means that every aspirant for a political position must adopt Hezbollah’s viewpoint on the file of demarcation, and have a degree of interest in defending the resistance’s weapon and the equations it imposes. Hezbollah seeks to perpetuate the continuity of the rules it established by imposing Michel Aoun as President of the Republic.
new stage
On the other hand, Washington is working to separate the positions of Lebanese officials from those of Hezbollah. But it hasn’t clearly succeeded in that so far. The President of the Republic used Hezbollah’s drones and considered them a source of strength for the Lebanese state. Bassil, in turn, clearly adopts Nasrallah’s positions. This means that no separation is achieved between Hezbollah and its strategic ally.
After Nasrallah’s escalatory words, the position of the US State Department came to stress the achievement of progress in demarcation and narrowing the gaps in order to reach an agreement. This American position aims to make Hezbollah’s positions marginal. The joint US-Saudi statement also did that, stressing that power in Lebanon should be in the hands of the Lebanese state. According to the statement: “The two sides stress the importance of extending the control of the Lebanese government over all Lebanese territories, including implementing the provisions of the relevant Security Council resolutions and the Taif Agreement, in order for the state to exercise its full sovereignty. There will be no weapons without the approval of the Lebanese government. There will be no authority but her own.”
The Jeddah summit constitutes a new political station in the region. It establishes a new stage. But what is not clear so far is how the political investment of the results of that summit will be in the arenas of the region.