2023-11-12 10:58:01
11:29 GMT, November 12, 2023
Israel’s policy of neither recognizing nor denying the possession of nuclear weapons is in the spotlight following a minister considered an atomic attack on Gaza. Why the Jewish State opts for the policy of nuclear opacity, which consists of not admitting the existence of its arsenal, is the subject of debate among experts.
Read on SputnikOn November 5, the Israeli Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage, Amihai Eliyahu, declared that a nuclear attack once morest the Gaza Strip “is one of the possibilities” of the development of the conflict. However, a little later, the official noted that his “statement is metaphorical.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharovadescribed the words regarding the possibility of using atomic weapons once morest the Gaza Strip as “provocative and absolutely unacceptable”.
“In the context of Israel’s historical policy of uncertainty regarding the possession of nuclear weapons, these statements not only clearly confirm that this country possesses such weapons, but also demonstrate the willingness to seriously consider the possibility of their use in completely inappropriate scenarios.” “said the spokesperson.
In his words, the Israeli minister’s speech continues to raise a series of issues that the international community should consider.
Amihai Eliyahu’s statements were also condemned by countries such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspended him from his position “until further notice,” alleging that the statements “they have no basis in reality”.
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The international community takes the existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal for granted, even though the country refuses to confirm his capacity. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that Israel has approximately 80 nuclear weaponsof which 30 are gravity bombs to be launched by aircraft and 50 are intended for Jericho II medium-range ballistic missiles.
“This arsenal reinforces Israel’s military superiority in the region, which is already indisputable even if we only consider conventional weapons,” he told Sputnik. Marcos José Barbieri Ferreiraprofessor at the State University of Campinae (Brazil).
Open data also indicates that Israel has land, sea and air delivery means that might be used as vectors for the use of nuclear weapons.
“First of all, Israel has fighter jets F-16 y F-15 (…) that can carry nuclear weapons,” explained Barbieri Ferreira.
Secondly, it highlights that the Jewish country has ballistic and cruise missiles of the Jericho family that can carry atomic warheads and, thirdly, it has German Dolphin conventional submarines that might also easily be equipped with nuclear weapons.
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Two Israeli F-16 fighters and one American during military maneuvers in Israel in January 2022.
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An Israeli F-15 fighter escorts a US B-1B bomber, on October 30, 2021.
However, the opacity policy prevents Israel from carrying out nuclear tests or even demonstrating its capabilities to ensure deterrence of the enemy.
“Nuclear deterrence involves demonstrating your power to inflict a loss on your adversary and thus avoid an attack. In this context, nuclear countries demonstrate their power, as North Korea does, for example,” said Barbieri Ferreira.
He added that Israel is “one of the only nuclear-armed countries that does not take this stance.” The absence of public atomic tests raises doubts regarding the effectiveness of Israeli nuclear weapons. On the other hand, there are indications that the Jewish State carried out tests during the 20th century with the help of partner countries such as the US, France and South Africa.
Reasons why Israel opts for the policy of nuclear opacity
The reason why Israel opts for the policy of nuclear opacity, which consists of not admitting the existence of its arsenal, is the subject of debate among experts.
“Some authors point out that there is an internal taboo in Israel that leads to non-recognition. At the dawn of the nuclear era, Israel positioned itself by saying that it would not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons in the already conflictive region of the Middle East. In the In practice, that was not what happened, but the weight of history remains,” he explained to Sputnik. Raquel Gontijoprofessor at the Catholic University of Minas Gerais.
In his words, another reason is to avoid triggering an atomic race in the Middle East.
“It seems that Israel does not admit to having these weapons so that this is not used as an argument for other countries in the region to develop their own nuclear programs. And we know that Israel has adopted a decisive policy to prevent its neighbors from acquiring nuclear weapons,” he said. the expert.
The professor recalled cases such as the Israeli attack on the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981, the attack on the al-Kibar and Deir ez-Zor facilities in Syria and the cyber attacks with the Stuxnet and Flame viruses, not confirmed by Israel, once morest the Iranian atomic program.
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Furthermore, maintaining nuclear opacity might even increase Israeli deterrence, since enemies do not have a clear perception of the capabilities of the Jewish State or even its nuclear doctrine, which would indicate possible scenarios for the use of these weapons.
“At the moment, Israel has very little to gain by renouncing opacity. Its arsenal is already public and everyone knows that Israel has a very important nuclear capacity,” said Raquel Gontijo.
Use of nuclear weapons in the Gaza Strip
The statements of the now former minister Eliyahu they have not been the only ones in which Israeli authorities have considered using nuclear weapons once morest targets in the Gaza Strip.
Shortly following the Hamas attacks of October 7, Israeli MP Rivatal Tally Gotliv also made calls for his state to resort to a “doomsday” weapon in response to the attacks.
“Only an explosion that shakes the Middle East will restore dignity, strength and security to this country! It’s time to kiss the day of judgment,” Gotliv wrote on platform X (formerly Twitter).
Raquel Gontijo, however, does not consider that Israel is going to resort to its atomic arsenal at this time.
“The likelihood of Israel using a nuclear weapon in this conflict once morest Hamas it is low. “The conflict is extremely asymmetrical, as Israel’s armed forces have capabilities far superior to those of Hamas and its Arab neighbors,” he stressed. What is behind US support for Israel?
Furthermore, international support for Israel would be eroded both among public opinion and among governments normally sympathetic to its cause, he added.
“If Israel used nuclear weapons in this conflict, the international reaction would be very strong (…), even in the United States. Therefore, the costs of using nuclear weapons would be greater than the benefits, which would be to destroy a territory that is already in a vulnerable position,” he noted.
The expert does not rule out, however, the possibility that Israel will use these weapons if it faces an alliance between Arab countries that “really means an existential threat for the State of Israel”, but reiterates that “this is not what is happening now.
The Israeli ground operation in the Gaza Strip began on October 27, with the objective of retaliating for the attacks carried out by the Palestinian group Hamas on its territory on the 7th of the same month. According to figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health, published on November 9, Israeli forces have claimed the lives of 11,025 civilians in the Gaza Strip, including 4,506 children, and have left more than 27,000 civilians injured.
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