According to the China Purchasing Managers Index released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on March 31, in March, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.5 respectively. %, 48.4% and 48.8%, down 0.7, 3.2 and 2.4 percentage points from February.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the three major indexes all fell below the critical point, indicating that my country’s overall economic prosperity has declined. Affected by the current round of the epidemic, some companies in some areas temporarily reduced production and stopped production, and affected the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related companies; at the same time, the recent intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, some companies’ export orders have been reduced or cancelled, manufacturing production activities and market demand. somewhat weakened. However, judging from the survey of enterprises, as the epidemic situation in some areas is effectively controlled, the suppressed production and demand will gradually recover, and the market is expected to pick up.
While production and demand fell, the price index continued to rise. Affected by the recent sharp fluctuations in international commodity prices and other factors, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 66.1% and 56.7%, respectively, 6.1 and 2.6 percentage points higher than that in February, and both rose to near 5-month highs. At the same time, some surveyed enterprises reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, there were insufficient personnel, poor logistics and transportation, and prolonged delivery cycles. The supplier delivery time index in March was 46.5%, 1.7 percentage points lower than that in February and the lowest point since March 2020. The stability of the manufacturing supply chain was affected to a certain extent.
“The PMI index dropped significantly in March and fell below the line of prosperity and decline. Compared with the general characteristics of historical data, there is a big difference. Considering all aspects of economic recovery, it can be considered that the general spread of the epidemic is the main reason.” Development Research of the State Council Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the center, believes that it is necessary to improve the accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, effectively reduce the impact of the spread of the epidemic on economic and social activities, and ensure stable growth and the overall situation without impact. We will speed up the detailed implementation of policies related to expanding domestic demand, especially the work related to major government construction projects, and strive to start construction as soon as possible and achieve results as soon as possible.
In terms of non-manufacturing industries, the service industry has been significantly affected by the current round of the epidemic. The business activity index was 46.7%, 3.8 percentage points and 8.5 percentage points lower than that in February and the same period of the previous year, respectively. From the perspective of the industry, railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering and other contact clusters have been greatly affected by the epidemic, business activities have been significantly reduced, and the business activity index has dropped by more than 20 percentage points, and the operating pressure of enterprises has increased.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that, in general, the epidemic has a more obvious impact on non-manufacturing industries, and the demand for consumer-related services has been suppressed. However, it should also be noted that consumer demand has a certain inherent stability, and once the epidemic eases, its recovery speed is relatively fast. Continuing to accelerate the progress of investment and increase support for expanding domestic demand are important guarantees for the steady recovery of my country’s economy. At the same time, it is also a top priority to implement targeted support policies to help industries with greater impact on the epidemic to transition smoothly and to stabilize market expectations.
“The impact of the spread of the epidemic is a short-term disturbance factor. As the impact of the epidemic slows down, the service industry activities will rebound significantly. At the same time, various localities are actively taking targeted measures to improve the accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, and increase support for the service industry’s troubled sectors. We are optimistic regarding the prospects for the subsequent recovery of the service industry,” said Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank.
Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said that the economic operation still has a stable foundation. First, the recovery of the basic raw material industry will continue to support the macro economy; second, many industries are gradually entering the peak season for production and sales, and there is room for market supply and demand to rebound, and enterprises remain relatively optimistic; third, the country has made great efforts to stabilize the economy, and many The coordinated development of policies should be made ahead, and the stable and supportive effect on the economy will gradually emerge. As the epidemic gradually eases, the economy will stabilize in the later period, and market players should maintain full confidence.
Source: Economic Daily
Original title: PMI index fell to contraction range, experts said: optimistic expectations for market recoveryReturn to Sohu, see more
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