The failure of the American justice that condemned the nation state for the nationalization of YPF in 2012, but that left the oil company unscathedwill have future economic consequencesif the appeals filed by Argentina are unfavorable and support the decision of the judge Loretta Preska. Not so the political impact. In a sector of the Government they are “convinced” that the time chosen and the “recipients chosen” to blame for the “errors” of nationalization responded to a political intention rather than commercial.
Various sources consulted by PROFILE They made it clear that the sentence avoided a conflict with the main company that operates in the most flourishing business area of the country, in energy matters, such as Vaca Muerta. “If it ruled against the commercial interests of YPF, it could affect itat a time when it not only leads the range of unconventional gas extraction, but also because it leads with Petronas the exploration for the LNG liquefaction plant”, analyzed an official linked to the energy sector.
Why was YPF excluded from the damages, which the national State will have to face? According to different sources from the Kirchner environment, the judicial decision has a “political background, more than a commercial one”. It happens that the main ones questioned about the actions of the government during 2012 were the then president Cristina Kirchnerand who was his Minister of Economy, Axel Kicillof. both today are potential candidates in the Front of All. In fact, the opposition was in charge of pointing to both leaders responsible.
Kirchnerism denounces collusion between the opposition and Judge Preska
“It is no coincidence that this ruling has come out at this time”questioned a source close to the current Buenos Aires governor, who, internally, believes that “There is clearly a collusion between the local opposition and a certain powerful sector of the United States justice system”. It is not about an analysis that wanders around the La Plata government house, but that is transversal to Kirchnerism, which after the verdict was known decided to turn off phones, but left annoying messages.
The US justice ruled against Argentina for the nationalization of YPF
For those around the Instituto Patria, where the Kirchnerist political factory operates, Preska’s decision is “so hasty, as if out of time.” “It took eight years to define a cause and it does so right nowin the middle of an electoral year, with definitions of candidacies and with problems in the economic environment that constantly maintain tension”, alleged some leaders close to Cristina Kirchner.
From a technical point of view, the nationalization of 51% of YPF’s shares was “basically an issue of sovereignty.” “The statute of a private company cannot be above public law”, reiterated the sources consulted, regarding the questions that the US justice took to argue the ruling. That same proposal brought Argentina to the North American stages a little less than a year ago, but it was not enough to convince shareholders of the damages.
The Casa Rosada sought to downplay the ruling
in pink househowever, they sought to reduce interest in the subjectdespite the fact that it won the media scene and that it generated a hard blow to YPF shares, collapsing 3.4% in the S&P Merval after learning of the US court ruling. “These are very long processes, there are still many appeals”sought to temper the spirits one of the advisors very close to the president Alberto Fernandez. Consulted about the political impact denounced by Kirchnerism, that same source clarified: “Today we have more urgent things”.
This unchecking maneuver seemed to be a response to Kirchnerism, which days ago returned to the charge against the head of state due to the results of the administration, with rising poverty, uncontainable inflation and loss of workers’ purchasing power. The criticism came from the Minister of the Interior, Edward “Wado” Of Peterwho said that the results in that area “were not optimal”. The relationship between Alberto Fernandez y Sergio Massaafter the reproaches of the wife of the minister and head of Aysa, Malena Galmariniwho said that he off the record con “political operations” against the head of the Palacio de Hacienda came from Casa Rosada.
Fury of liberalism and the PRO against Kicillof for the US ruling on the expropriation of YPF
The judicial onslaught obscured the “good news” that Massa brought to the country after meeting with him International Monetary Fund and get him to disburse the payment of US$5,400 million, after the approval of the quarterly goals. Those dollars made it possible to settle the maturities that the IMF should have collected a week earlier and, mainly, strengthen the meager reserves of the Central Bankwhich on the last day of March sold US$ 99 million, accumulated losses of more than US$ 1,900 in that month and which ended with the worst first quarter in 20 yearsindented just below the US$ 3,000 million.
The tour of Massa in the tour of Alberto Fernández
The relationship Massa-Alberto Fernández is not in the best moment, but he remains standing. The efforts to keep the economy afloat, in the midst of the blows of drought and inflation, still left alive the presidential hope of the minister, who, although he publicly denies his electoral aspirations, on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda, he is already designing the way to exercise an eventual double command of management and campaignif it is your turn to be at the head of the list of candidates of the Front of All.
Massa went to the United States to show his own political power. “He had a parallel entourage,” admitted sources close to the minister. It happens that, at the last moment, he boarded a large part of his economic team to prove your fire power in management. Something similar had happened when he, barely assumed, he went to visit the head of the IMF, Kristalina Geeorgieva, to Washington. This time the meeting was with the deputy director of the Fund, Gita Gopinathwhom he convinced of the drought effect, not only for the disbursement of dollars, but especially for allow you to start the “aggro dollar”with exchange benefits for the export of the field, despite the issuance cost that it will have for the treasury.
Who is Loretta Preska, the Wall Street judge who ruled against the government for the YPF trial?
The truth is that, in the YPF ruling, reactions in the ruling coalition were mixed. While Kirchnerism pointed to a collusion between the opposition and a sector of the US justice system; the presidential entourage sought to play down the sentence; and massismo opted for silence, to enthrone the successful results of Massa’s personal tour, as part of Alberto Fernández’s tour of the United States.
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