This is a completely new approach to the responsibility of the States which emit the largest CO2 in global warming. The study published this Thursday, January 6 in the scientific journal Nature focuses on the contemporary era, the period 1991-2030, in other words since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned regarding the anthropogenic origin of warming, to the reduction commitments formulated during the recent climate conference in Glasgow, last November.
→ READ. Climate, three questions for a crucial decade
Over these forty years, these five big emitters – China, the United States, the European Union, India and Russia – are expected to be responsible for 52% of global CO2 emissions. In view of their timid promises to reduce emissions, they will continue to total 53% of global emissions over the 2016-2030 period alone, i.e. since the Paris agreement which aims to limit global warming to + 1.5 ° C. compared to the pre-industrial era.
Extremely hot years every other year
As a result, these countries weigh heavily in climate change, as shown by the team led by Lea Beusch from the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences in Zurich.
Extremely hot years that only occurred once a century in a pre-industrial climate are expected to occur every other year by 2030 in 92% of the 165 countries surveyed, and those in tropical Africa are expected to be the hardest. affected. However, by eliminating the emissions of the five major emitters over the fifteen years 2016-2030, the ratio would fall to 77%. And if this deletion ran over the entire period 1991-2030, only 46% of States would be affected. These five big emitters “Play a major role in global and regional warming and increase the likelihood of extremely hot years”, the authors conclude.
A guide for public policies
This observation should guide public policies, they believe. Indeed, according to the Paris agreement, each state decides freely on its own emission reduction efforts, without these being the subject of international negotiations. However, the calculation method used is used to quantify the contributions of each country to global warming. This approach “Helps all countries to make emission reduction decisions while taking into account their respective responsibilities”, they expect.
This approach applies not only to the largest emitters but to all countries, especially small ones, whose per capita emissions are very high. For the time being, as the study points out, none of the states’ promises allow the Paris Agreement to be respected. The Glasgow Pact called on them to step up their commitments by the end of 2022.
.
