In an exclusive interview with CNBC on the 25th, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimonda mentioned that he hoped that Congress would quickly put the CHIPS Act passed last year on the road, and get government resources earlier and build a U.S. domestic market. production system. Among them, it was mentioned in an exclusive interview that “70% of the most advanced chips in the United States are bought from Taiwan, which is not safe.” In addition, Biden went to Samsung wafer foundry, the United States and Japan on the first stop of his visit to South Korea. Cooperation in advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes, etc., the general indications are that US semiconductor manufacturing hopes to spread the risk of being too concentrated in Taiwan.
What is the follow-up trend of TSMC, the protector of the country and the leader in foundry of that Taiwan stock?
The electronics industry is an industry with a short product cycle. The foundry platform provided by TSMC is an architectural concept. Although there have been many leaders in the development of semiconductors for a long time, TSMC is now the leader in foundry. But in the process, why were these former leading manufacturers caught up by TSMC? Basically, the champion is the champion, but if people let you or the masters not come down to play, then TSMC will not seem to be able to play in the next 3-5 years, but what about 10 years later? Please, mobile phones are rarely used for more than 3 years. In the long run, there are still variables. Here are a few possible variables:
1. Technology
TSMC’s performance in the foundry segment is indeed leading, but will there be a new architecture in the future? At present, there may be nothing more than materials and basic science to move forward. This part of Taiwan is relatively weak, and there are some hidden worries in the future.
２、Materials & Human Resources & Patents
Recently, we have seen that Russia has begun to restrict important gases in the semiconductor process. In fact, everyone has not delved into it. TSMC is subject to many patents in terms of machines, materials, and gases, and even a stable power supply is questioned. As for human resources, Taiwan has basically invested the best talents. However, looking at the international competitiveness of the Department of Science and Engineering of National Taiwan University, National Taiwan University is now ranked in the top 100, while South Korea, as the main competitor, has three under 100. Keep going. If the future is compared to basic science and other research capabilities, it may be less prominent.
３、political power
In recent years, the confrontation between the United States and China has benefited Taiwan a lot, but this part is not within our grasp. The international trend is changing very fast. Maybe the confrontation will turn into cooperation in the next second. Besides, because TSMC is also going to the United States to set up factories, but the synergy effect is poor, and the cooperation plans from Europe and Japan are also continuing. Affect TSMC production costs.
４、International stock market environment
The recent weakness of TSMC’s share price is related to the pullback of the international stock market. In recent years, the trading volume can increase greatly and the market situation is very good, and the price-earnings ratio given to the company will increase a lot. The price-earnings ratio of TSMC in previous years was not too high, but in recent years, it has often seen 30 times or even 40 times.
５、The meaning of Chairman Zhang Qian is far-reaching
Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, attended the Brookings Institution, an American think tank, as a guest and said: “Increasing domestic chip production in the United States is an expensive, wasteful and futile move.” He pointed out that the advantage of the United States lies in the availability of “the world’s top” design talents. In terms of manpower in the manufacturing industry, compared to Taiwan, there is less manpower, so if we want to develop a successful chip manufacturing industry, the United States needs to solve the problem of the shortage of manufacturing talents.
My understanding is that TSMC is manufacturing! For such an industry, there is no reason to give too high a price-earnings ratio evaluation. But in the stock market, there is a dream that is the most beautiful, that is, the ratio of the dream > the ratio of the price to the profit. If you only look at the ratio of the price to the profit, it is to make a reasonable amount of money.
in conclusion
The biggest advantage of TSMC is that the financial report is transparent, and the stock price is easy to estimate from the changes in profit figures. As the title says, in the next few years, when there is currently no rival in this field, financial models can be used to estimate the safety of the stock price. You can use arbitrage to make money by doing some range operations, but if it is a long-term investment behavior of depositing shares or treating it as a family heirloom, I don’t think it is necessary.
Author introduction: Micro-stock power talent – stock wolf team【】
Weiguli LINE official account【】