military strategy
It has been five days of war and the perceptions about Russia’s military strategy have been changing with the passing of the hours. Last Thursday, when the offensive began, it was thought that Vladimir Putin’s bet was only the definitive capture of Donbas, the macrozone where the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are located, in eastern Ukraine. The plan, it was thought, was that after a limited attack on that border, Russia could create a large corridor from the Crimean peninsula – which it annexed in 2014 – to Donbas. A few hours were enough for even the most incautious to realize that what the Russian President intends is an armed conflict throughout Ukraine. Therefore, he has attacked from Belarus (from the northwestern border), across the Black Sea (from the south), and across the Russian border (from the northeast). So far the war has caused seven million displaced and it is expected that 18 million Ukrainians will be affected in one way or another.
the battle of kiev
It is the “jewel in the crown”. Being the capital of the country, its eventual fall into Russian hands could mean the capitulation of the government of President Volodimir Zelensky. Russia has attacked Kiev by air and ground, mainly through the northern zone, from its own border and from Belarusian areas. Artillery fire has hit civilian targets and thousands of citizens have had to resort to anti-aircraft shelters, others have had to flee to the border with Poland and Hungary, but also not a few have enrolled in civilian armed militias and paramilitary units. In Kiev, inhabited by almost 3 million people, practically everything is closed and the suspicion of infiltrated Russian units is the order of the day.
¿Cae Kharkiv?
Located in the east of the country – one could say something like between Kiev and Donbas – it is the second largest city in Ukraine. Russian forces stormed this city of 1.4 million people on Sunday. They did it through light armored vehicles and that produced urban clashes. At the end of the day, the local governor, Oleg Sinegubov, assured that the city was under the control of the Ukrainian forces.
© Provided by La Tercera
Third
military capacity
According to the IISS Military Balance report published at the beginning of last February, the total of the active Armed Forces of Ukraine amounts to 196,600. In contrast, it is estimated russian forces exceed 900 thousand, of which more than 150 thousand were concentrated in different points of the border before the invasion. According to the Archyde.com agency, “the Ukrainian Navy is limited to a large warship and a dozen patrol boats, compared to the might of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.” In the last eight years of armed conflict in Donbas, with an estimated 14,000 dead, Ukrainian forces have gained experience in World War I-style trench warfare. “Instead, Russian forces demonstrated in Syria, where they intervened on the side of President Basher Assad, that they are capable of moving rapidly over great distances, setting up floating bridges to cross rivers, and synchronizing ground maneuvers with air and drone strikes. ”, noted Archyde.com. Precisely the Su-57 fighters and the Kalibr cruise missiles have been used in the framework of the Syrian intervention.
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A Ukrainian soldier examines a destroyed Russian vehicle in the city of Kharkiv, the country’s second largest. Photo: Sergey BOBOK / AFP
The ghost of Chechnya
But in a war, whoever has the most weapons does not necessarily win. The complexities of a war conflict also have to do with the characteristics of the terrain, the composition of the allies, the “global momentum”, the role of civilians and, especially, morale. In that sense, several analysts have compared the current Russian offensive with the first chechen war (1994-1996). Between those years, Russia tried to regain control of this republic -located in the North Caucasus- that declared its independence after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite conquering Grozny, the capital, they were unable to establish effective control of the zone and in 1996 Boris Yeltsin, then Russian leader, ended up negotiating a ceasefire. Yet it was Vladimir Putin, then prime minister, who in 1999 restored Russian federal control over Chechnya in a devastating offensive. On Sunday, the Russian Army acknowledged for the first time having had deaths and injuries in Ukraine, although without specifying figures.
Zelensky asks for help and negotiates
Volodimir Zelensky was a comic actor who in May 2019 became President of Ukraine and has now become a global icon. This, for his firm decision to defend his countrymen and request desperate calls for the West to grant him help. Zelensky had already given signs of his character when he indirectly led Donald Trump to his first impeachment. This, after a call from Trump – who had frozen defense aid for Ukraine -, in which he asked him for the “favor” of opening an investigation against Hunter Biden and his father, former Vice President Joe Biden, then a candidate for the Democratic Party to the White House. During his tenure as head of state, Zelensky has launched several reforms, in addition to unconditionally supporting the Ukrainian Army in the Donbas war, although Ukraine remains the third most corrupt country in Europe (after Russia and Azerbaijan), according to with Transparency International. “We will fight as long as it takes,” he said Saturday.
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The President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, in one of his speeches after the Russian offensive. Photo: AFP
peace negotiations
On Sunday, President Zelensky said that he will try to negotiate with Russia. Of course, he warned that “I say things clearly, as always: I don’t think it will work” but “we have to try”. The bet is to carry out some kind of negotiation on the border with Belarus.
Putin’s mind
The Russian President considers the Ukrainian territory as part of Russia. And he justifies the military offensive that he launched on Thursday precisely in that sense. What he intends is to recover the power and global status that the Soviet Union once had.whose fall meant for him “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century”. For the same reason, it took advantage of the conflict with Georgia in 2008 to take control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while in 2014 it annexed Crimea to Russian territory. All those areas of vital importance for the exit to the Black Sea. And I could go for more. “Putin’s ultimate plan is the reabsorption of Belarus and Ukraine, for a new Russian empire before he dies or leaves office. He could also incorporate Armenia and Kazakhstan”, he commented to Third William Alberque, analista del International Institute for Stategic Studies (IISS).
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A column is seen from the town of Vasylkiv on the outskirts of Kiev on Sunday. Photo: Dimitar DILKOFF / AFP
Europe’s position
The European Union (EU) announced on Sunday a clear increase in pressure on Russia, with measures that include financing the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to Ukrainian forces. “For the first time, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to the country under attack.” said the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. “We are closing EU airspace to the Russians. We are going to propose the ban for all Russian-owned, Russian-registered or Russian-controlled aircraft,” she added.
Greatest conflict since 1945
Russia’s attack on Ukraine has become the most serious war conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. The conflict in Yugoslavia, which took place between 1991 and 2001, affected a number of countries that later gained independence, but it was an internal conflict, not between two nations.