2023-12-18 15:45:00
LSars-CoV-2, as we know, is far from having disappeared. To the point that it might well still be talked regarding at the end of 2023. This virus, responsible for Covid-19, is definitely endowed with an unparalleled capacity for evolution and adaptation. The different variants which have followed one another, all from the formidable Omicron which appeared just two years ago, have not experienced the same explosiveness as this first of the line which at the time succeeded the Delta variant. The latest addition to the family, the JN.1 variant, immediately named Pirola, is circulating very actively in France and throughout the world.
With this new version, Sars-CoV-2 seems to have regained strength and its increased transmissibility might give us a bit of trouble in the weeks to come.
What exactly do we know regarding this JN.1 variant? It is a descendant of the BA.2.86 variant from which it stands out with around thirty mutations, including one on the Spike protein which is the target of vaccines. These mutations seem to give it an advantage in transmissibility such that it might become dominant very quickly, and no doubt it already is today. On the symptoms side, nothing really new, this new variant seems to hold the line of its predecessors by giving fever, cough, runny nose and sometimes severe fatigue.
JN.1 Pirola is now the dominant variant worldwide.
At 12/5/23 it accounted for 42% of sequences. The trajectory is clear that it has now surpassed 50%. pic.twitter.com/e4eM4Lra74
— JWeiland (@JPWeiland) December 16, 2023
What characterizes a variant is the time it will take to become the majority, that is to say to represent more than half of new infections. If it took barely more than a month for the BA.1 variant to become the majority, the JN.1 variant seems to be experiencing a dynamic close to that of the BA.2 and BA.5 variants which had caused us much hassle by becoming the majority in two and a half months.
Vaccination is stalling
As Antoine Flahaut points out in a thread published on Vaccination as well as repeated infections of the population now offer certain immune protection, with the exception of fragile people who remain at risk of developing potentially fatal complications.
1/9 – Why is the answer to the question “are they hospitalized or died – for – or – with – Covid” not satisfactory today?
Because we no longer die (or almost no longer) directly from Covid, but indirectly. Explanations…— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) December 17, 2023
From now on, a Covid-19 infection, like the flu, can precipitate the death of elderly people or people with several comorbidities as well as immunocompromised people. According to Antoine Flahaut, the excess mortality linked to Sars-CoV-2 would be more than 40,000 per year, compared to 9,000 for the flu. Long before Sars-CoV-2 appeared in our daily lives, hospitals were already experiencing difficulties when, during the winter, epidemics accumulated. So, when bronchiolitis – which affects not only babies but also the elderly – and the flu were circulating at the same time, this might lead to episodes of extreme tension in hospitals. We now have to deal with Covid-19, and this is what is worrying health professionals at the end of the year in the face of the explosion of new cases.
Will JN.1 spoil the end of year celebrations? Yes, if he passes by you, pins you to bed and deprives you of the Yule log. Yes, too, if you have to go to the emergency room (be extra careful when opening oysters), because the wait might be longer than usual. Yes, finally, if you are elderly, if you have comorbidities or if you are around elderly or at-risk people, the high contagiousness of the JN.1 variant particularly exposes you.
READ ALSO Flu, Covid-19: the government calls for vaccination before ChristmasFor the others, the vast majority who do not fall into the risk categories, an infection with JN.1 will not present any more risks than with its predecessors, especially if you have already been in contact with the virus through vaccination or a past infection. A quick word to finish on vaccination, particularly for people at risk, which seems to be stalling. Barely more than a quarter of people aged over 65 have received a booster dose, which is very insufficient. Let us remember once once more that vaccination is a simple gesture that can mean a lot at the end of the year, there is still time to roll up your sleeve and get jabbed.
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