2024-04-13 13:17:17
Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasing his “nuclear threat.” As hostilities enter the third year since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the conflict with the United States and Europe is at its worst since the Cold War, with repeated threats to use nuclear weapons. It explored the circumstances that led to the absolute view of nuclear forces, including during the former Soviet Union, when Russia constituted a single country with Ukraine and other countries. (Former Moscow bureau, Yuji Koyanagi)
◆ “Defend our own territory by any means possible”
On the fourth day of the invasion, Putin put his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, citing the “unfriendly attitude” of the United States, Europe and Japan. In September of the same year, it “annexed” all four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine and declared that it would defend its territory by “all means necessary.”
Russia’s military doctrine limits the use of nuclear weapons to situations such as when the country is attacked by weapons of mass destruction or when the country’s survival is threatened by an attack using conventional weapons. The latest nuclear threat appears to be aimed at stopping the United States and Europe from supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Russia envisions local use of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, but it is unlikely that Ukraine, which has vowed to fight through all its resistance, will surrender. On the other hand, if nuclear weapons were to be used for the first time since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings, the international community’s “nuclear norms” would be shaken. Even China and India, which have shown a neutral attitude towards Russia, may become tougher towards Russia.
In the fall of the same year, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Stoltenberg warned that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would have “serious consequences.” If NATO takes “punishment” with missiles or other means, Russian military retaliation is inevitable. If Russia ever decides to use even small nuclear weapons, there is a risk of an all-out nuclear war with the United States and Europe.
◆“If it’s a tiger,” pay attention to the U.S. presidential election
In Russia, the nuclear button is controlled by the president, the defense minister, and the military chief of staff, and a launch requires the consent of at least two people. In an all-out nuclear war, the “three nuclear pillars” of ballistic missile-equipped nuclear submarines (SSBNs), strategic bombers, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will play the leading role.
The outcome of the US presidential election in November will also be a focus of attention. Former Republican President Donald Trump, who has preached the necessity of expanding nuclear arms, announced in 2018, during his term in office, that he would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty signed with the former Soviet Union. The treaty expired the following year. As the deadline for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia, which limits the three nuclear pillars and the number of strategic nuclear warheads, approaches in February 2026, it is doubtful whether the United States and Russia will be able to resume nuclear disarmament negotiations. ing.
◆”Putin’s ideas are too light”
Mr. Putin’s worldview, which sees countries without nuclear weapons as “weak”, is also becoming clear.
In August 2022, Putin issued a statement saying, “There are no winners in a nuclear war and it must not be fought.” “There are no winners in a nuclear war” was a principle declared by the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but Mr. Putin said, “If the United States and Europe intervene in the situation in Ukraine, it will lead to a nuclear war with Russia.” Use in a distorted manner. It is an information war to keep the United States and Europe in check, threatening the destruction of the world.
It is rare for a leader in the world to mention the use of nuclear weapons, and there have been concerns for some time that “Putin’s views on nuclear weapons are too light” (Russian science reporter).
In September 2020, in a speech to the United Nations, Putin referred to the permanent members of the Security Council that possess nuclear weapons (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China) as the “Five Nuclear Powers,” and defined them as leading the world order. After invading Ukraine, he said, “The United States continues to occupy Germany, Japan, and South Korea,” expressing his belief that non-nuclear states do not have “true sovereignty.”
◆Believing in nuclear forces at “Hiroshima and Nagasaki”
Russia’s belief in nuclear forces stems from the United States dropping the atomic bomb on Japan in 1945.
The Soviet leadership at the time was shocked by the United States’ use of nuclear weapons, and four years later succeeded in building an atomic bomb that copied the Nagasaki version. Meanwhile, the making of origami cranes in memory of Sadako Sasaki, a girl who died in the atomic bombing in Hiroshima, was spread to Soviet schools, instilling anti-American sentiment among the population.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with the United States, Britain, and Russia, under which Ukraine agreed to maintain territorial integrity in exchange for consolidating its nuclear weapons in Russia. However, Russia has been invading Ukraine step by step since 2014, leaving the international community with the question of how to protect the sovereignty of a country that has renounced its nuclear weapons.
Like Ukraine, Belarus abandoned its nuclear arsenal following the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia is proceeding with the deployment of small tactical nuclear weapons, increasing military tensions between NATO and Russia and Belarus.
1713078661
#Putin #ready #nuclear #war.. #Unique #worldview #Russias #nuclear #strategy #Dangerous #deadline #nuclear #disarmament #Tokyo #Shimbun #TOKYO #Web
