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Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2003-2006) and former governor of the Indian central bank (2013-2016), Raghuram Rajan is one of the rare economists to have anticipated the financial crisis of 2008. This professor at the business school of the University of Chicago believes that Western countries that want to protect their industries overestimate the impact on employment and advocates that indebted countries default instead of sacrifice their education and health expenses.
How do you explain Donald Trump’s victory?
Over the last twenty years, there has been a lot of job destruction in developed countries, particularly middle-income jobs which could be occupied by people without qualifications. These destructions have generated a feeling of frustration, also fueled by growing precariousness. This anxiety is amplified by the speed of technological change. It is machines or computers that replace humans in routine tasks, whether on an assembly line or in an office. However, it is much easier to point the finger at the factory that moves abroad.
This fetishization of manufacturing is overblown. Firstly because the jobs which have disappeared from developed countries are not going to come back and secondly because the industry is creating far fewer jobs than before. It is now capital intensive and no longer labor intensive.
With Trump’s return to the White House, should we prepare for new trade wars?
There are countries with which tariff blackmail serves as negotiating leverage, when Donald Trump threatens, for example, Mexico with customs duties if it does not improve its fight against drug trafficking. Often, it stops there. The case of China is different and responds to two logics. Among Mr. Trump’s advisers, there are those who believe that increasing customs duties will create jobs in the United States. But there are also those who want to contain China’s expansion. All this leads me to believe that Washington will take action against Beijing. And if Chinese exports fall significantly, this will also lead to a drop in its demand, which poses a problem for the rest of the world.
Luxury brands will, for example, suffer the consequences, but also developing countries that sell their raw materials to China. And this time, Washington will not let Chinese imports pass through other countries, such as Mexico or Vietnam. Moreover, Mr. Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties against electric vehicles assembled by the Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico. The next trade wars led by Mr. Trump will be more and more indiscriminate, they will no longer differentiate between China and other countries, they will therefore be much more serious.
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Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2003-2006) and former governor of the Indian central bank (2013-2016), Raghuram Rajan is one of the rare economists to have anticipated the financial crisis of 2008. This professor at the business school of the University of Chicago believes that Western countries that want to protect their industries overestimate the impact on employment and advocates that indebted countries default instead of sacrifice their education and health expenses.
How do you explain Donald Trump’s victory?
Over the last twenty years, there has been a lot of job destruction in developed countries, particularly middle-income jobs which could be occupied by people without qualifications. These destructions have generated a feeling of frustration, also fueled by growing precariousness. This anxiety is amplified by the speed of technological change. It is machines or computers that replace humans in routine tasks, whether on an assembly line or in an office. However, it is much easier to point the finger at the factory that moves abroad.
This fetishization of manufacturing is overblown. Firstly because the jobs which have disappeared from developed countries are not going to come back and secondly because the industry is creating far fewer jobs than before. It is now capital intensive and no longer labor intensive.
With Trump’s return to the White House, should we prepare for new trade wars?
There are countries with which tariff blackmail serves as negotiating leverage, when Donald Trump threatens, for example, Mexico with customs duties if it does not improve its fight against drug trafficking. Often, it stops there. The case of China is different and responds to two logics. Among Mr. Trump’s advisers, there are those who believe that increasing customs duties will create jobs in the United States. But there are also those who want to contain China’s expansion. All this leads me to believe that Washington will take action against Beijing. And if Chinese exports fall significantly, this will also lead to a drop in its demand, which poses a problem for the rest of the world.
Luxury brands will, for example, suffer the consequences, but also developing countries that sell their raw materials to China. And this time, Washington will not let Chinese imports pass through other countries, such as Mexico or Vietnam. Moreover, Mr. Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties against electric vehicles assembled by the Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico. The next trade wars led by Mr. Trump will be more and more indiscriminate, they will no longer differentiate between China and other countries, they will therefore be much more serious.
You have 55.05% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
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Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2003-2006) and former governor of the Indian central bank (2013-2016), Raghuram Rajan is one of the rare economists to have anticipated the financial crisis of 2008. This professor at the business school of the University of Chicago believes that Western countries that want to protect their industries overestimate the impact on employment and advocates that indebted countries default instead of sacrifice their education and health expenses.
How do you explain Donald Trump’s victory?
Over the last twenty years, there has been a lot of job destruction in developed countries, particularly middle-income jobs which could be occupied by people without qualifications. These destructions have generated a feeling of frustration, also fueled by growing precariousness. This anxiety is amplified by the speed of technological change. It is machines or computers that replace humans in routine tasks, whether on an assembly line or in an office. However, it is much easier to point the finger at the factory that moves abroad.
This fetishization of manufacturing is overblown. Firstly because the jobs which have disappeared from developed countries are not going to come back and secondly because the industry is creating far fewer jobs than before. It is now capital intensive and no longer labor intensive.
With Trump’s return to the White House, should we prepare for new trade wars?
There are countries with which tariff blackmail serves as negotiating leverage, when Donald Trump threatens, for example, Mexico with customs duties if it does not improve its fight against drug trafficking. Often, it stops there. The case of China is different and responds to two logics. Among Mr. Trump’s advisers, there are those who believe that increasing customs duties will create jobs in the United States. But there are also those who want to contain China’s expansion. All this leads me to believe that Washington will take action against Beijing. And if Chinese exports fall significantly, this will also lead to a drop in its demand, which poses a problem for the rest of the world.
Luxury brands will, for example, suffer the consequences, but also developing countries that sell their raw materials to China. And this time, Washington will not let Chinese imports pass through other countries, such as Mexico or Vietnam. Moreover, Mr. Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties against electric vehicles assembled by the Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico. The next trade wars led by Mr. Trump will be more and more indiscriminate, they will no longer differentiate between China and other countries, they will therefore be much more serious.
You have 55.05% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
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Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2003-2006) and former governor of the Indian central bank (2013-2016), Raghuram Rajan is one of the rare economists to have anticipated the financial crisis of 2008. This professor at the business school of the University of Chicago believes that Western countries that want to protect their industries overestimate the impact on employment and advocates that indebted countries default instead of sacrifice their education and health expenses.
How do you explain Donald Trump’s victory?
Over the last twenty years, there has been a lot of job destruction in developed countries, particularly middle-income jobs which could be occupied by people without qualifications. These destructions have generated a feeling of frustration, also fueled by growing precariousness. This anxiety is amplified by the speed of technological change. It is machines or computers that replace humans in routine tasks, whether on an assembly line or in an office. However, it is much easier to point the finger at the factory that moves abroad.
This fetishization of manufacturing is overblown. Firstly because the jobs which have disappeared from developed countries are not going to come back and secondly because the industry is creating far fewer jobs than before. It is now capital intensive and no longer labor intensive.
With Trump’s return to the White House, should we prepare for new trade wars?
There are countries with which tariff blackmail serves as negotiating leverage, when Donald Trump threatens, for example, Mexico with customs duties if it does not improve its fight against drug trafficking. Often, it stops there. The case of China is different and responds to two logics. Among Mr. Trump’s advisers, there are those who believe that increasing customs duties will create jobs in the United States. But there are also those who want to contain China’s expansion. All this leads me to believe that Washington will take action against Beijing. And if Chinese exports fall significantly, this will also lead to a drop in its demand, which poses a problem for the rest of the world.
Luxury brands will, for example, suffer the consequences, but also developing countries that sell their raw materials to China. And this time, Washington will not let Chinese imports pass through other countries, such as Mexico or Vietnam. Moreover, Mr. Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties against electric vehicles assembled by the Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico. The next trade wars led by Mr. Trump will be more and more indiscriminate, they will no longer differentiate between China and other countries, they will therefore be much more serious.
You have 55.05% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
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Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF, 2003-2006) and former governor of the Indian central bank (2013-2016), Raghuram Rajan is one of the rare economists to have anticipated the financial crisis of 2008. This professor at the business school of the University of Chicago believes that Western countries that want to protect their industries overestimate the impact on employment and advocates that indebted countries default instead of sacrifice their education and health expenses.
How do you explain Donald Trump’s victory?
Over the last twenty years, there has been a lot of job destruction in developed countries, particularly middle-income jobs which could be occupied by people without qualifications. These destructions have generated a feeling of frustration, also fueled by growing precariousness. This anxiety is amplified by the speed of technological change. It is machines or computers that replace humans in routine tasks, whether on an assembly line or in an office. However, it is much easier to point the finger at the factory that moves abroad.
This fetishization of manufacturing is overblown. Firstly because the jobs which have disappeared from developed countries are not going to come back and secondly because the industry is creating far fewer jobs than before. It is now capital intensive and no longer labor intensive.
With Trump’s return to the White House, should we prepare for new trade wars?
There are countries with which tariff blackmail serves as negotiating leverage, when Donald Trump threatens, for example, Mexico with customs duties if it does not improve its fight against drug trafficking. Often, it stops there. The case of China is different and responds to two logics. Among Mr. Trump’s advisers, there are those who believe that increasing customs duties will create jobs in the United States. But there are also those who want to contain China’s expansion. All this leads me to believe that Washington will take action against Beijing. And if Chinese exports fall significantly, this will also lead to a drop in its demand, which poses a problem for the rest of the world.
Luxury brands will, for example, suffer the consequences, but also developing countries that sell their raw materials to China. And this time, Washington will not let Chinese imports pass through other countries, such as Mexico or Vietnam. Moreover, Mr. Trump threatened to impose 100% customs duties against electric vehicles assembled by the Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico. The next trade wars led by Mr. Trump will be more and more indiscriminate, they will no longer differentiate between China and other countries, they will therefore be much more serious.
You have 55.05% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.
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How could Donald Trump’s return to the presidency impact international trade relations?
## Brace for Impact: Trump’s Return Sparks Fears of More Trade Wars
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, there are growing concerns about a resurgence of trade wars, potentially more damaging than those witnessed during his first term. While Trump has previously used tariffs as a negotiating tactic with countries like Mexico, his approach towards China is significantly different and driven by a desire to contain its expansion.
Experts predict that Trump’s actions could lead to a sharp decrease in Chinese exports, impacting global demand and subsequently hurting luxury brands and developing nations reliant on selling raw materials to China.
This time, Trump appears less inclined to allow Chinese goods to bypass tariffs via countries like Mexico or Vietnam. His recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on electric vehicles assembled by Chinese manufacturer BYD in Mexico exemplifies this shift.
Analysts warn that future trade wars under Trump will be less targeted and more indiscriminate, further destabilizing the global economy.
The specter of a renewed trade war looms large, posing a significant challenge to international trade and economic stability.
