The next pandemic will be caused by one of the viruses that cause influenza, the world’s infection experts warn.
57% of those who took part in a new international survey said that the flu is the one most likely to cause a global epidemic of fatal incidents. Another 17% ranked her in second place.
Their belief that influenza viruses pose the greatest threat to a future pandemic is due to the fact that they mutate incessantly.
“Every winter we get the flu,” said lead researcher Dr. Jon Salmanton-García, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cologne. “Its annual outbreaks are mini-pandemics. But they are more or less controlled, because the strains that cause them are not contagious or dangerous enough. But that doesn’t mean they won’t happen at some point.”
The next pathogen most likely to cause a pandemic is an as-yet-unknown virus, which has been dubbed disease X. 21% of the scientists in the study said that such a virus, appearing suddenly like the coronavirus that caused the recent pandemic, would be the one who will threaten us.
The new research
The new findings were published in the medical journal Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease. They will also be announced at the European Society for Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) annual conference to be held in Barcelona 27-30 April 2024.
The researchers asked infection experts to rank 14 viruses in terms of their potential to cause a pandemic. They were also asked to suggest an additional (the 15th) potential pathogen themselves. The viruses asked to rate were:
The virus that causes Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
Disease X (an unknown disease that the World Health Organization says will one day cause a pandemic)
The Ebola virus
Hantavirus (or Hanta virus)
Henipa virus
Influenza viruses
The Lassa virus
The Marburg virus
The virus that causes MERS
The Nipah virus
Rift Valley Fever Virus (or Rift Valley Fever – RVF)
The virus that causes SARS (SARS-CoV)
The coronavirus that caused the recent pandemic (SARS-CoV-2)
The Zika virus
A total of 187 infection specialists from 57 countries of the world, including Greece, participated in the research. The largest number of answers were given by scientists from Germany (there were 27), Spain (20) and Italy (14 experts).
the findings
Influenza viruses received the highest score. 147 of the participants (rate 78.6%) ranked them in the first positions of the relevant table (from 1st to 4th).
The top five dangerous viruses are completed by disease X, the coronaviruses that caused the recent pandemic and SARS, and the Ebola virus. Conversely, Hanta, Lassa, Nipah and Henipa viruses have the least chance of causing a pandemic.
In particular, disease X was chosen by 92 experts for positions 1-9. The coronavirus that caused the recent pandemic was chosen by 81 experts for positions 1-14. The virus that caused SARS was chosen by 41 experts for positions 1-13 and Ebola by 36 experts for positions 1-9.
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