2023-10-29 01:03:52
More than a month ago, Huawei launched a mobile phone using advanced process chips, demonstrating China’s independent research and development results under the containment of the United States. In this regard, the United States has introduced more restrictive and precise control measures to combat China’s AI development. What impact will it have on Taiwanese factories?
“I have been discussing (the U.S. ban) with the team all night. It is hundreds of pages of documents.” When asked by reporters about the impact of the new ban issued by the United States on October 17, Huida CEO Huang Renxun chose Conservative response: “We will still find ways to supply the Chinese market.”
In order to further restrict the development of artificial intelligence (AI) in China, the United States has taken multiple actions under the new ban, including using more sophisticated performance calculation methods to limit the chips that can be sold to China, including more Chinese AI companies on the entity list, and Expand key equipment that restricts China’s development of advanced manufacturing processes.
When AI chips cannot enter China, will TSMC, which is regarded as a key player in the development of the AI industry, be affected? In response to this, TSMC President Wei Zhejia responded during a press conference on October 19 that “the impact is limited and controllable.”
AI demand is strong, TSMC is optimistic
The direct impact is limited. The key is that the AI market is in short supply. Zeng Guanwei, senior research manager at research firm IDC, explained that in the long run, because high-end AI chips still rely on advanced processes and advanced packaging technologies, judging from TSMC’s active capacity expansion plan for advanced packaging CoWoS, “Besides Huida, there are many There is strong demand from industry players.”
Zeng Guanwei also pointed out that even in the short term, if Huida revise down TSMC’s wafer production, “the impact will be in the first quarter of next year and will not have an impact on this year’s operations.” Currently, AI has a negative impact on TSMC’s revenue. The contribution is less than 10% and is still in the growth stage. Wei Zhejia said that customers continue to develop AI in the fields of mobile phones and computers. “It starts now. More customers will put AI products into terminal devices.” The global market demand for AI , is the main reason why TSMC is optimistic about the long-term.
The U.S. ban adds controls on ASML’s NXT:1980Di deep ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography equipment, which affects Chinese wafer foundries and may also create business opportunities for Taiwanese manufacturers.
“ASML NXT:1980Di can develop a 7nm process,” Wu Jinrong, general manager of MicroDrive Technology, explained that through DUV’s multiple exposure method, Chinese wafer factories can still develop advanced processes to supply domestic demand despite high costs. .
However, DUV is also limited, and it will be difficult for China’s advanced process production capacity to continue to expand, but the need for advanced processes to manufacture wafers will continue to increase. Zheng Kai’an, a senior industry analyst at the Information Policy Council, explained that when advanced process production capacity of Chinese wafer fabs such as China Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is limited, it may be a necessary choice for AI chips to mature processes above 16 nanometers.
“For TSMC, the Nanjing factory has the production capacity of 16/12nm process.” What Zheng Kaian said is that China’s advanced process is limited and AI demand continues to grow, which will have the opportunity to drive more AI chips to mature processes. Wafer production has become the growth potential of TSMC in the Chinese market.
This escalation of the AI ban has also resulted in the “downgraded” AI chips specially customized by Huida and Intel’s Habana being unable to be sold in China. An IC chip designer admitted frankly that the whole world is competing for Huida chips, so the impact of not being able to sell downgraded chips is relatively limited. However, most of the customers of Habana AI chips are Chinese manufacturers, so it will be a big loss if they can’t sell them.
(Authors: Tan Weisheng, Wang Zicheng; the full text is not complete, please see “Today’s Weekly》; Source of the first picture: Dazhi Image)
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