Ten days ago, Israel launched a barrage of missile strikes on Lebanon, resulting in the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. This targeted assassination dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah, which is Tehran’s most hard-line and crucial proxy.
Nasrallah’s demise marks a significant loss for Iran’s strategic objectives, as he had long been a devoted ally of Tehran.
Shift in Strategy
Following Nasrallah’s assassination and the onset of Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, Iran responded on Tuesday by launching missile strikes against Israel. This sudden shift in strategy may be attributed to several factors. One possible turning point in this escalating crisis occurred when Netanyahu delivered a scathing speech last Monday, directly addressing the Iranian people. Netanyahu stated, among other things, that regime change in Tehran was imminent, saying:
“Every moment, the regime brings you, the noble Persian people, closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know that their regime does not care about them. If it truly cared, it would stop squandering billions of dollars on futile wars throughout the Middle East. It would start improving your life. Imagine if all the enormous funds the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in educating your children, enhancing your healthcare, building your nation’s infrastructure, water, sewage, and all the other things you need. Imagine that.”
Netanyahu also expressed his conviction that peace between Iran and Israel would only be achievable when Iran is “free,” a moment he believes will arrive “much sooner than people think.”
Consequences
The Israeli army’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon this week raised the stakes even further. From Iran’s perspective, these actions pose a significant and immediate threat. Israel’s military operations seem to be aimed at significantly degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities, weakening one of Iran’s most crucial allies in the region. Hezbollah has long served Iran’s strategic goals, acting as its geopolitical arm in Lebanon and a counterweight to Israeli influence.
The Iranian leadership perceived Netanyahu’s message as a direct threat to the stability of their government. Nasrallah’s death has also resonated deeply with the Iranian leadership. He was not only a military leader but also a close personal ally of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. His loss is a symbolic blow to the Iranian regime, which has long relied on Hezbollah as a critical element of its regional strategy.
The complexity of the situation is also underscored by the fact that Iran did not respond with direct strikes after the assassination of another key ally, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, who was killed in Tehran in July. Despite the supreme leader’s orders to retaliate against Israel, Iran chose not to escalate the situation at that time.
It was this inaction that may have emboldened Israel, leading to the current escalation. In other words, Tehran’s decision not to follow through on its threats after Haniya’s death could be interpreted by Israel as a sign of weakness, encouraging it to launch further military action.
It is worth noting that there are moderate factions within the Iranian political establishment who still believe that Israel is deliberately setting traps to lure Iran into war. The president, Pezheskian, for example, last month warned against backing down on Israel’s provocations, suggesting that Tehran should avoid taking the bait and starting a conflict that could spiral out of control.
Firepower
An all-out war with Israel would almost certainly involve the US directly, a scenario that would be disastrous for Iran. The Iranian leadership is well aware that its military capabilities are inferior to those of Israel and the US, and such a war is unlikely to end in its favor. In addition to its military disadvantage, Iran is also financially ill-prepared for a protracted war. The country is already struggling with the effects of international sanctions and domestic mismanagement of the economy, and a conflict with Israel would further exacerbate these challenges. Despite these constraints, Tehran apparently felt compelled to respond in some way to maintain its credibility, both at home and with its regional allies, which is why it fired about 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday night.
the current situation between Iran and Israel is extremely perilous and can affect the entire region. Both sides are engaged in a precarious cycle of provocation and retaliation, where even a small mistake could lead to a full-scale war. Such a conflict would not only affect Iran and Israel but also draw in other countries in the region as well as global powers, potentially igniting a wider conflagration in the Middle East.
Similarities and Differences
In the microscope: The Iranian attacks of April and October 1
The Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1 was more effective than the drone missile attack on April 13, 2024. This may indicate that Iran is learning how to optimize its “strike packages” against Western and Israeli air defenses.
Although Israel intercepted most of the missiles fired by Iran on October 1, a considerable percentage managed to hit Israeli territory, causing considerable damage, mainly to residential and military structures.
Reaction Time
The former head of Israel’s Missile Defense Agency, Uzi Rubin, said the April 2024 attack was “easier to prevent” because the cruise missiles and drones gave the Israeli military “sufficient warning” and, therefore, more reaction time. The ballistic missiles took about 15 minutes to fly from Iran to Israel.
Iranian analysts pointed out that Iran used a combination of missiles to achieve different results in the attack compared to April. The liquid-fueled Emad missiles were intended to engage Israeli interceptors, while the more advanced Fattah and Kheybar Shekan missiles were intended to strike precision targets.
Russia’s World Cup Loss Amidst President Putin’s Absence
The Russian president disappointed the nation by failing to attend the match
Pundits and football enthusiasts alike were shocked when Vladimir Putin failed to attend the highly-anticipated match between Russia and their European counterparts, sparking widespread speculation about the reasons behind his absence.
President Putin, known for his enthusiasm for sports, especially hockey, had not missed a significant football match in recent years, leading many to expect his presence at the World Cup. However, the Russian leader disappointed the nation by failing to attend the event, leaving fans to ponder his reasons for staying away.
Speculations have ranged from rumors about a knee injury to claims that Putin was avoiding an embarrassing encounter with his European counterparts. Nonetheless, the president’s absence remains a mystery that is yet to be unraveled, leaving football enthusiasts and pundits to continue their debates on social media.
When asked for comments, Russian officials politely declined, citing that President Putin’s schedule was full and couldn’t accommodate an appearance at the match. Nevertheless, Russian football fans continue to speculate about their president’s absence, fuelling further debates on the reasons behind Putin’s failure to attend the World Cup.
Despite Putin’s absence, Russia still managed to secure a commendable victory, quelling concerns about their performance. Fans hope that Putin’s eventual presence at the next match would serve as a much-needed morale boost for the team as they progress through the tournament.
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The Iran-Israel Crisis: A Perilous Escalation
The recent targeted assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, by Israeli forces has sparked a significant escalation in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. Nasrallah’s demise marks a significant loss for Iran’s strategic objectives, as he had long been a devoted ally of Tehran[[[1]]. The situation has taken a critical turn with Iran firing a barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, a response to Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon [[2]].
The shift in strategy can be attributed to several factors, including Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s scathing speech directed at the Iranian people, which called for regime change in Tehran. Netanyahu’s words were seen as a direct threat to the Iranian government, leading to a response from Tehran[[[3]]. The Iranian leadership, already facing domestic instability and economic struggles, felt compelled to demonstrate its military capabilities and credibility to maintain its regional influence.
The complexities of the situation are multifaceted, with various factors contributing to the escalating crisis. Iran’s decision not to retaliate after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in July may have emboldened Israel, leading to the current escalation. The moderate factions within the Iranian political establishment are calling for caution, warning against taking the bait and starting a conflict that could spiral out of control.
A full-scale war with Israel would almost certainly involve the United States directly, a scenario that would be disastrous for Iran. Iran’s military capabilities are inferior to those of Israel and the US, and a protracted war would exacerbate the country’s economic struggles. Despite these constraints, Tehran felt compelled to respond to maintain its credibility, firing about 180 missiles into Israel on Tuesday night.
The situation is extremely perilous, with the potential for further escalation and miscalculation. As the conflict deepens, the international community must remain vigilant and work towards diplomatic solutions to de-escalate tensions before it’s too late. It remains to be seen how the situation will unfold, but one thing is clear: the Iran-Israel conflict has the potential to destabilize the entire region.
References:
[1] Iran–Israel proxy conflict (Wikipedia) – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israelproxyconflict
[2] Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West (Reuters) – https://www.reuters.com/investigations/murder-hire-inside-irans-proxy-war-with-israel-west-2024-10-05/
[3] Israel strikes Lebanon as region braces for response to Iran (CNN) – https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-attack-war-lebanon-10-05-24-intl-hnk/index.html