2023-05-16 15:07:00
The gap between the expectations generated by the measures that the economic team would take and those that were finally launched acted like a boomerang.
The market maintained its dynamics and financial variables continued to absorb uncertainty, which caused a new increase in the “blue” dollar to $483, a jump of $10 compared to Friday’s close.
A similar picture was observed in stock options. The MEP rose 0.8% to $437.78 and Cash with Settlement advanced 0.35% to $442.33.
After it was revealed on Friday that inflation for April was 8.4%, the economic team sought to do “damage control” and “launched on top of the bomb” setting up an emergency meeting on Saturday in search of a series of measures to attack the uncontrolled situation of prices.
But finally, what was going to be an “announcement” by the minister turned into a series of Sunday morning communications, among which the only highlight was the rise in the interest rate of the Central Bank from 91 to 97%, which is even considered insufficient by market analysts.
This rate becomes an effective monthly rate of 8% for fixed-term placements up to 30 days for up to $30 million, when inflation in May aims to exceed that percentage.
Therefore, the real rate remains negative and is not enough to tempt savers to leave their money in the banks.
From there arises the first interpretation of the new jump in the informal price.
When the analysts broke down the measures, it became clear that there was nothing new or that might change the situation and consequently all the variables moved upwards.
Among the announcements, emphasis was also placed on how the Central Bank would handle the daily devaluation rate. A part of the analysts speculated that it would accelerate it to meet the requirement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -which does not want to release more dollars at this exchange rate-, while the other part of the library predicted a lower rate of depreciation. of the peso to act as an inflationary anchor.
Finally, the devaluation was 0.55%, leaving the official at $241.39, with no major change compared to the previous wheels in terms of pace.
In turn, the Central Bank bought U$S 60 million, with a liquidation of the cereal companies of U$S 78 million. So far this month, the Central’s net sales stand at US$ 91 million, a very negative number given that this is “the high season” for the accumulation of foreign currency for the monetary authority.
Until today, the liquidations of the exporters slightly exceed US$ 2,500 million. When there are only 10 days left for the completion of the program -it expires on May 31- it is already certain that the objective of US$ 9,500 million sought by the government will not be reached.
Credit cards
Among the measures, a drop in interest rates was announced for unpaid balances on credit cards and for this purpose the BCRA issued two resolutions, which for practical purposes does not result in significant relief for families’ pockets.
On the one hand, it lowered from 88 to 86% the annual rate to be applied to debit balances of cards issued by financial institutions. And on the other, it set at 81.08% the maximum that non-financial issuers can apply, for example supermarkets, household appliance chains and other mass consumption companies.
In this way, the BCRA seeks not to transfer the increase from 91 to 97% of the reference rate.
It should be noted that the limited rates affect debit balances, that is, when the owner of the card does not pay the monthly total and there is an amount to be paid in the coming months.
The measures apply from the month of June and the changes in the interest rate do not affect credits already taken or purchases already made in installments under certain conditions.
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