[贵金属]
Precious metals: The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 50BP, the probability of rising U.S. bond yields is strong, precious metals soared and turned down
【Market review】
Overnight, non-agricultural data will be released this week. The chairman of the Federal Reserve will deliver a testimony on monetary policy in Congress in the middle of the week. The market expects that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50BP will affect market sentiment. Strong yields have turned precious metals higher and lower. COMEX gold futures opened higher and once rose to US$1864.3 and then fell by more than US$10. The closing price was US$1852.4 per ounce, a decrease of 0.56%. down 1.12%.
【Outlook】
Strong employment and persistent inflation data in the US reflect that the economy is still supported, and the rebound in consumption data further confirms this fact. The market is re-pricing the line of monetary policy, and interest rates may still be raised in the second quarter. Although the probability of raising interest rates by 50BP in March has increased, the Fed is expected to maintain a range of 25BP to observe the specific impact of each rate hike on economic activity and inflation.Under the logic that U.S. production activities remain resilient and inflation fails to see a significant fall, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields will be supported. However, during the period, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank’s resolutions will cause disturbances that will limit the dollar’s gains. In March, the Fed will welcome Coming interest rate resolution, before the market digests the negative impact, the yellowgold pricePrices remain in a range of 1800-1900 US dollars (410-420 yuan domestically), and attention should be paid to the restoration of domestic spot premiums.
The negative impact of short-term financial attributes on silver continues. In addition, non-ferrous metals have disturbed silver prices in terms of industrial attributes. At present, global silver inventories remain at a low level and there is still support. The overall price is 20.5-22.5 US dollars (4800 -5050 yuan) range fluctuations.
【Technical】
The price of COMEX gold is supported above $1,800 in the short term, and there is resistance above the 60-day moving average, and the green column of MACD turns red. There is short-term rebound momentum.
【Funds】
The decline in gold prices has kept ETF positions at a low level. Generally speaking, retail investors and long-term funds have limited investment interest in precious metals. Residents’ disposable income and deposits have decreased or suppressed financial investment demand.
【Operation Suggestions】
Gold is selling high and buying low in the range of 1800-1900 US dollars (410-420 yuan).
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