Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to increase its hawkish tone, traders are betting that inflation is close to peaking. US stocks opened higher on Monday (12th), and the US dollar, US debt 10-year yieldFalling, the market awaits the August consumer price index (CPI) report released on Tuesday (13th).
Before the deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averageup nearly 150 points or nearly 0.5%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 90 points or 0.75%,S&P 500 Indexrose nearly 0.7%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose 0.03%.
Outside estimates, the annual growth rate of CPI will continue to cool to 8%, the previous value was 8.5%, but the annual growth rate of the core CPI excluding food and energy may slightly rise to 6.1%, the previous value was 5.9%. Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by the same amount next week following the previous two rate hikes of 3 yards (75 basis points), and the forward guidance of previous Fed officials before the meeting supported this. a point of view.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports another “significant” rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month, a stance that suggested Waller was in favor of a 3-yard rate hike. Waller said inflation was too high to tell now whether inflation continued to fall sharply, supporting a sharp rate hike next week that would bring policy rates to levels that would clearly limit demand.
In other news, Europe is set to unveil a proposed package of emergency measures this week, including a windfall profits tax on energy companies, but countries remain divided on the details and whether to cap gas prices.
Ministers at a meeting on Friday called for a cap on natural gas prices to reduce soaring energy bills by people and businesses ahead of winter, according to a summary of the meeting released by the Czech Republic, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency. It is reported that European Commission President von der Leyen (Ursula von der Leyen) will mention the proposal in a speech on Wednesday (14th), and countries still hold different views on whether this measure will alleviate or exacerbate the European energy crisis.
In terms of international oil prices, with the Iranian nuclear talks appearing to be hindered, as well as concerns regarding the Russian oil embargo, coupled with tight oil supply, it is difficult to meet strong demand.Brent CrudeFutures rose 0.95% to $93.72 a barrel; West Texas crude for October expiration rose 0.76% to $87.45 a barrel.
In the foreign exchange market, as the European Central Bank continued to be hawkish following raising interest rates by 3 yards last week, emphasizing the need for further interest rate hikes, and the demand for the dollar despite the expected slowdown in US inflation,EURThe exchange rate once morest the dollar posted its biggest gain in six months. European trading hours,US dollar indexDiving below 108 at one point, but then back above 108, reported 108.085 by press time. Market analysts pointed out that the sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market are mainly related to the hawkish actions of the European Central Bank.
As of 21:00 on Monday (12th) Taipei time:
Stocks in focus:
Netflix(NFLX-US) rose 1.25% to $236.49 a share in early trade
Video streaming giant Netflix (NFLX-US) said that establishing a partnership with Ubisoft, France’s largest game maker, will help expand the company’s game industry footprint. Netflix said over the weekend that it is teaming up with Ubisoft to co-launch three new mobile games next year, continuing the legacy of Valiant Hearts, The Mighty Quest and Assassin’s Creed. story.
Ford (F-US) rose 0.71% to $15.53 a share in early trade
Ford is extending the usefulness of its hands-free highway driving system to Lincoln’s entry-level Corsair crossover to extend the technology to lower-priced vehicles. The 2023 Corsair will be the sixth model in Ford’s lineup to offer the system, and the second Lincoln model following the brand’s flagship Navigator SUV. Known as ActiveGlide at Lincoln and BlueCruise at Ford, the Corsair will be Ford’s lowest-priced vehicle offering the technology.
Twitter (TWTR-US) fell 0.95% to $41.79 a share in early trade
Twitter said on Monday that it did not violate any of its obligations under Musk’s proposed $44 billion takeover offer by paying the whistleblower following Musk sent a third letter seeking to cancel the deal. Twitter said it intends to execute the acquisition agreement and complete the transaction at the price and terms it negotiated with Musk. Twitter shareholders will vote Tuesday on whether to approve or reject Musk’s takeover offer.
Today’s key economic data:
none
Wall Street Analysis:
Oanda senior market analyst Craig Erlam said monetary policymakers appeared keen to reinforce their hawkish stance before the economy stalled, possibly due to concerns regarding upcoming CPI data. However, there is also a sense that if economic data soften, market expectations for rate hikes might slip, something the Fed clearly wants to avoid.
Rand Merchant Bank economists said the market’s flouting of the Fed’s forward guidance might gain some support if the CPI data shows a marked easing of price pressures, a strong case for relatively riskier assets. Still, the risk of the Fed sticking to a hawkish stance remains, as inflation might remain well above its acceptable level for an extended period of time, which means it’s still too early to bet on the dollar not getting any closer .
