2024-03-01 19:26:00
The Lebanon War: A change in the Israeli and Iranian readings
Published on: March 01, 2024: 11:26 PM GST Last updated: March 01, 2024: 11:30 PM GST
In parallel with the possibility of achieving an interim settlement in the Gaza war before the advent of the holy month of Ramadan between both Israel and Hamas, which includes a truce that may last up to six weeks, and an exchange of prisoners and detainees on both sides, the risks coming from the Lebanese-Israeli front are rising in light of the major change. What is happening at the level of Israeli political and security thinking regarding the reality on the Lebanese side of the border.
Talking regarding the Lebanon front being the next in a major war that Israel is waging following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on October 7 is not a fantasy, and is no longer part of imaginary scenarios that are far from logic. The experience of Hezbollah engaging on its own in the war by opening the Lebanese front to fight an “engaged” war may have changed the traditional equation that some observers believe will prevail following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The ceasefire in Gaza does not mean that the Lebanese front will return to the old rules of engagement, or to the previous reality of the period before the seventh of October. Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” turned the Israeli way of thinking, and with it public opinion, upside down. Talking regarding the return of the Lebanon front to the truce that prevailed between the end of the 2006 war and the Gaza war is no longer attractive to the Israeli political and military levels. Hence the major shift that portends a war between Israel and Hezbollah immediately following the end of the major military operations in Gaza, that is, following the invasion of the city of Rafah.
These estimates may be the reason for the leakage of information via Arab websites regarding a meeting last Monday between the commander of the Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut, as a source in the Revolutionary Guard was attributed to saying that Tehran Hezbollah informed Hezbollah of its approval to increase the level of confrontation with Israel, but only following Israel begins the process of invading the city of Rafah, on the basis that there is a conviction formed by Hezbollah and the regime in Iran that Israel has decided to attack the party with a major operation immediately following the end of the process of invading Rafah. The last stronghold of Hamas and the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip. The same source was also attributed to saying that Iran decided to establish something similar to an air and land bridge to provide Hezbollah with all the advanced weapons and equipment it requires to confront Israel in a large-scale war to come.
The above leaks may aim to send a message to Israel that the red lines are no longer far away following Tel Aviv overthrew a series of rules of engagement nearly five months into the war. In other words, it can be said that the Iranian reading of Israel’s intentions has changed to the point where Tehran now fears for the fate of Hezbollah following Hamas.
These data coincide with statements reported by the American CNN network, quoting a senior American official, in which he spoke regarding the high possibility of a war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah, while emphasizing that Washington estimates that no one knows where such a war will lead.
If we interrupt the aforementioned information, leaks, and statements, we find that they end in one place: the possibility of war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah is real, and the danger is high, even very high.
according to “The day“
1709330102
#change #Israeli #Iranian #readings