2024-01-24 20:32:10
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in March gained 0.61%, to close at $80.04.
A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity gained 0.96%, to $75.09.
Prices were hesitant at the start of the session, before the publication of the weekly report from the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) gave them a clear direction.
Commercial stocks fell by 9.2 million barrels during the week ended January 19, much more than the 1.4 million that analysts predicted, according to a consensus established by the Bloomberg agency.
This significant drain on black gold reserves is mainly due to the drop in production, the victim of a winter storm which swept across a good part of the United States.
In total, the disruptions deprived the American market of one million barrels per day during the week in question, or seven million over the week.
Added to this is the drop in imports (-25%), which reduced the quantities available for refineries, whose utilization rate fell to 85.5%, compared to 92.6% the previous week.
For Robert Yawger, of Mizuho, if the disruptions had been anticipated by the operators, “we did not expect that so many barrels would go missing”, the analyst having, for his part, counted on the only half.
Beyond the American episode, “it seems that there is a little more trepidation” in the market, “a little more upward momentum”, argues Eli Rubin, of EBW Analytics Group, following several weeks of back and forth within a limited range.
Even if the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has not, for the moment, reduced oil deliveries, Citi analysts estimate that the bypass of the Red Sea by a number of tankers increases volumes at sea by 35 million barrels.
“It gives a boost” to prices, according to Eli Rubin, who also mentions the attack on a Russian oil depot by Ukraine on Friday to justify the hardening of the market.
The analyst expects to see WTI move out of the corridor between 70 and 75 dollars and move towards 80 “in the coming weeks”. before withdrawing, for lack of sufficient support, unless the Middle East experiences a major development.
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