From the end of the cold war it became interesting to entrust productive tasks to regions of the world which had become accessible and which had abundant cheap labour. Western countries transformed themselves into more profitable service economies, while thinking of remaining masters of their technologies. If industrial tasks migrated to Asia, they were accompanied by know-how, without anyone wanting to realize this dispossession. Three decades later, the dependencies have been reversed: material comfort is now imported from there and technological mastery is no longer a preserve.
Supply to the Western world today depends on the performance of a long logistics chain over which it no longer controls the raw materials, the intermediaries, or the production methods. An optimization of this just-in-time chain has made this supply more vulnerable, which is revealed during the recovery following the recent pandemic.
A minimum level of stock was quickly exhausted due to the interruption of production. It can only be rebuilt very slowly, while the recovery is causing increased demand and there are no reserves in production capacity. A feeling of scarcity causes a spectacular rise in the prices of almost all raw materials, manufactured goods and energy. An unreasonable and monstrous conflict that arises on the steps of Europe, or a severe confinement of Shanghai only exacerbate this situation.
The illusion of reindustrialization
However, let’s not kid ourselves: reindustrializing the West will not improve much. The supply of raw materials and energy will not change; these resources will continue to be exploited where they are, to the advantage and under the control of the countries that have them. If one wishes to produce more flexibly at home, this will create excess capacity and reduce efficiency. This may be justified for the purposes of civil defence, the armed forces or the maintenance of certain strategic stocks. However, these inefficiencies cannot consist of recreating and then leaving important resources idle, such as hospital beds (including healthcare teams), mask factories or chemical factories. Emergency plans, which are necessary, cannot be transformed into permanent mobilization awaiting unforeseeable disasters. Flows will therefore remain strained and no less exposed to the hiccups of the economy and global politics.
It is the same with the pollution which is concomitant with human industry. It will therefore be necessary to agree to relocate risks to health, safety or the environment at home. These are problems to be approached rationally, renouncing precaution at all costs, this anxiety of the rich who believe he has reached the point and who refuses the very idea of being inconvenienced.
New dependencies
Under the pressure of climate policies, the gas, oil and coal sector has prematurely reduced or ceased its exploration activities and no longer discovers significant reserves to exploit. The world’s supply of fossil fuels – 83% of which still depends on it (Europe 73%) – will soon no longer be assured, even though they remain essential for carrying out the necessary decarbonisation. These divestments are the delight of green Marxists in the living room but create new unsavory dependencies on actors whose structures are unknown and uncontrollable, sheltered from political regimes that are worrying to say the least. Climate economists must revise their grimoires, which have become obsolete because their incentive taxes and other carbon certificates are overwhelmed by the fossil rent controlled by an increasingly disciplined cartel.
This real and very material world astonishes and disturbs. Billions of people have been lifted out of poverty and have been able to access a prosperity that still eludes many. You’d have to be a real bastard to be upset regarding it, and a blinded idiot to only point out the problems that accompany this progress, as if it were undesirable. Globalization is, however, an irreversible phenomenon, with its benefits and drawbacks.
So, even if a certain reindustrialization is recommendable, particularly for cutting-edge and highly competitive sectors of which neither paracetamol nor surgical masks are part, the economic interdependencies will only be slightly modified. It is therefore revitalizing rather than torpedoing the World Trade Organization and strengthening the protection of intellectual property that are necessary. Rather than carrying out planning that is always erroneous, it is above all a question of maintaining a favorable framework for investments with efficient infrastructures, a high level of training and clear and stable environmental standards.
