According to him, one of the first things to realize about any report, news, post or comment that appeared after October 7, when the frozen conflict between Israel and Hamas fighters erupted, is that nobody knows full truth and full story, it is difficult not only to penetrate the fog of war, but also to find out what is really happening on the battlefield.
The fear that this war could expand is very real. Experts say a new reality is brewing in the Middle East, but what shape it will take and how it will play out will depend on how this war plays out.
The BBC’s news editor, in turn, compiled a list of things observers know and don’t know about the war in an already troubled region.
War to victory
One thing that is certain, Bowen said, is that the Israelis are supporting a military campaign to break the grip of Hamas and its junior partner Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip. Their anger is fueled by the shock of Hamas attacks that have killed more than 1,400 people and are still holding around 240 hostages in Gaza. Unfortunately, their future is still unknown.
Bowen said he met with Noam Tibon, a retired Israeli army general, who went to Nahal Oz, a kibbutz on the Gaza border, after the Oct. 7 attack. Hamas launched the attack. His mission was to rescue his son, daughter-in-law and their two young daughters, who were in their safe room as Hamas gunmen rampaged outside.
The former general is now retired, but he entered the kibbutz armed with an assault rifle and a helmet he took from a dead Israeli soldier. In the chaos of that day, the man gathered a group of soldiers and led them until they saved the lives of the people inside the kibbutz.
“Gaza will suffer… no nation will accept your neighbor killing babies, women or men. Just like you (British) crushed your enemy in WWII. This is what we have to do in Gaza. No mercy,” taught the officer, whom the journalist identified as a representative of the old school, a straightforward person.
When asked about the deaths of innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip, he told J. Bowen that they “have no other choice”. While many Israelis say that the deaths of Palestinian civilians are a loss, they emphasize that they are being killed by the actions of Hamas.
Israel does not count its own casualties
Although there is no shortage of people who believe that the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip is inflated, there are no questions about the unprecedented bloodshed.
According to the Ministry, the Palestinian deaths have already exceeded the 9,000 dead mark, and even 65 percent. of these are identified as women and children.
“Scanpix”/AP photo/After the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip
Unfortunately, it is not clear from the statistics provided how many of the dead men were civilians or fought in the ranks of Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The President of the United States, Joe Biden, and the Israelis do not trust the ministry’s data. However, in previous conflicts, international organizations considered Palestinian casualty statistics accurate.
Some of the dead Palestinians may well have belonged to Hamas, the BBC’s international news editor noted, but even if the figure is 10 percent, which is unlikely, it means Israel has killed the same number of Palestinian civilians in just over a month. , how many Russia has killed in Ukraine since 2022 in February (The UN says 9,700 civilians have died in Ukraine as a result of Russian aggression, although it notes that its figures for Ukraine are incomplete and the actual number of civilians killed is likely higher). The death toll in Gaza is likely to be higher as many Palestinians are believed to be buried under the rubble.
The UN human rights office said Israeli airstrikes have killed and injured so many civilians that the body has serious concerns that the attacks are disproportionate and could amount to war crimes.
War is impossible to avoid with the current leaders of both sides. Extremists in both Israel and Palestine will do anything to destroy this idea, as they have done since the 1990s
President Biden has supported Israel’s decision to use military force to oust Hamas from power since the first days of the Hamas attacks. But he also added the clarification that it needs to be done “the right way.” He meant that Israel should follow the laws of war that protect civilians.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who arrived in Tel Aviv, said before leaving the US that every time he sees a Palestinian child pulled from a collapsed building, “it hits him in the heart as hard as seeing a child from Israel or any other country.”
Photo by Irmantos Gelūnos/BNS/Antony Blinkenas
“I have covered all of Israel’s wars over the past 30 years. I don’t recall a US administration so publicly stating that Israel must obey the laws of war. A. Blinken’s visit shows that he believes that Israel is not following Mr. Biden’s advice,” wrote J. Bowen.
Pressure on the government
Another thing that is known for sure is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure.
In contrast to Israel’s security and military chiefs, he has not claimed any personal responsibility for the catastrophic series of failures that led to the Oct. 7 coup. Israel’s border communities were left virtually unprotected.
October 29 he caused a stir when he sent a message on the social network X in which he blamed the intelligence services. Netanyahu deleted the message and apologized.
Reuters/Scanpix/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Three Israelis — a former peace negotiator, the former head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet and a tech entrepreneur — published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine arguing that Netanyahu should have no say in the war and its aftermath.
“The Israeli prime minister has loyal supporters, but he has lost the trust of prominent figures in the Israeli military and security establishment,” the three authors wrote in the text.
N. Tibon, an acquaintance of J. Bowen’s reserve general, compared B. Netanyahu to Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister, who in 1940 was forced to resign and was replaced Winston Churchill.
While Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is always careful about what he says publicly, his actions over the years show that he does not want to allow the Palestinians to have an independent state.
“This is the biggest failure in the history of the State of Israel. It was a military failure. It was an intelligence failure. And it was a failure of the government… Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is really responsible – and all the blame goes to him… He is responsible for the biggest failure in Israel’s history,” the former officer stated.
Flawed government structures
Moreover, since the end of the last Palestinian uprising around 2005 a model was formed which, in B. Netanyahu’s opinion, could last indefinitely. But it was a dangerous illusion for all concerned, Palestinians and Israelis alike. Obviously the old one status quo was destroyed, noted J. Bowen. Although it was unpleasant and dangerous, he believed it at least seemed to have a certain grimly familiar stability.
It was argued that the Palestinians were no longer a threat to Israel. Instead, they were a problem to be managed. The tools available are sticks, carrots, and the age-old divide-and-conquer tactic.
B. Netanyahu, who since 2009, after the previous 1996-1999 period, most of the time as prime minister, has consistently insisted that Israel has no partner for peace.
Reuters/Scanpix Photo/Mahmud Abbas
“Maybe so. The Palestinian Authority, Hamas’ main rival, is a deeply flawed organization and many of its supporters believe its aging president, Mahmoud Abbas, must step down. But it supported the idea of creating a Palestinian state next to Israel as far back as the 1990s,” according to an article by the BBC’s international news editor.
According to him, Netanyahu’s “divide and rule” principle meant allowing Hamas to strengthen its power in Gaza at the expense of the Palestinian Authority.
Mr. Bowen went on to teach that while Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is always careful about what he says publicly, his actions over the years show that he does not want to allow the Palestinians to have an independent state.
“This would require giving up West Bank land, including East Jerusalem, which Israel’s right wing believes belongs to the Jews,” the journalist added.
Doomed to war?
Official reports give the impression that Israel, backed by the Americans, will not tolerate an agreement that allows Hamas to remain in power. This will, of course, lead to even more bloodshed. This also raises the question – who will replace them? It has not been answered yet.
The Arab-Jewish conflict over control of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea has been going on for more than 100 years. One of the lessons of its long and bloody history is that there will never be a military solution.
20th century In the 1990s, the Oslo Peace Process was launched to end the conflict by establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel with its capital in East Jerusalem. The last attempt to revive the process after years of intermittent negotiations took place during the administration of Barack Obama. It collapsed a decade ago, and since then the conflict has continued, Mr. Bowen recalled.
Zuma press/Scanpix/Israeli soldier near the Gaza Strip
As President Biden and many others have said, the only way to avoid more wars is to establish a Palestinian state next to Israel.
“This is not possible with the current leaders on both sides. Extremists in both Israel and Palestine will do anything to destroy this idea, as they have done since the 1990s. Some of them believe that they are carrying out God’s will, so it is impossible to convince them to accept a secular compromise,” said a journalist with extensive experience working in the Middle East.
In his opinion, if this war does not manage to shake societies, the world and break deep-rooted prejudices enough to make the idea of two states alive and attractive, then no one else will be able to do it.
“And if a mutually acceptable way to end the conflict is not found, several more generations of Palestinians and Israelis will be condemned to new wars,” added BBC editor J. Bowen.
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2024-10-02 14:49:25