2024-02-18 00:03:37
It is clear that there is a decision within Israel to continue the war on Gaza, with a consensus that reflects an Israeli desire to maintain control over the coastal city, albeit by re-occupying it directly. It does not seem that Netanyahu will surrender to the pressure of the American administration, whose officials are making statements criticizing the continuation of the war without taking civilians into consideration. The Israeli threat to continue the attack towards Rafah, which is adjacent to Egypt, constitutes an imminent danger that might result in casualties at rates much greater than the current rates, especially since Rafah was a haven. The last one is for everyone who moved from the hot spots in central and northern Gaza, which today are home to regarding one and a half million Palestinians.
Netanyahu resists Biden’s demands and presents him with plans to evacuate the residents of Rafah by transferring them to camps built for them on the seashore west of Gaza, considering that this provides a safe way to avoid exposure to the flames of war. The attack is delayed until the Israeli side convinces Biden of this plan, or presents him with a satisfactory alternative, but Netanyahu On the other hand, he needs to achieve a complete and undiminished victory without significant delay, while Biden is under strong electoral pressure, and wants to “flatter up” Muslim voters and please an American public that has come to see Israeli brutality in the war. The presence of Hezbollah in the north encourages Netanyahu to find a way out of the time crisis, as he does not escalate the attack on Lebanon to amount to a declaration of continuous war, and is content with intermittent attacks, and despite the evacuation of the northern settlements so that they do not put pressure on him, we see Netanyahu responding to Hezbollah’s attacks in a focused manner. More than two hundred members of the party were killed, including field commanders, one of which came recently in response to a missile attack on Safad. It is striking that Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for the attack, even though it bears the imprint that marks all of its operations.
It is clear that the tactic followed by Hezbollah in dealing with Israel following the attack on Gaza depends on standing on the sharp edge, without sliding into a comprehensive confrontation that brings back the story of 2006, when southern Lebanon faced an Israeli army attack, and Hezbollah’s positions were forcefully bombed, and no The war will stop only with Security Council Resolution No. 1701, which was unanimously approved by the Lebanese government, and stipulates the necessity of Hezbollah’s retreat beyond the Litani River, and the Lebanese army’s deployment in the south. This resolution was not implemented, and instead, unwritten rules were established between the party and Israel. . Netanyahu is trying to convince his audience that he is seeking to impose the implementation of the international resolution, but the war with Lebanon seems to still be under control, even following the recent escalation carried out by Hezbollah, which left one dead and wounded Israelis in Safed, and Israel responded by killing a senior Hezbollah official, It was followed by a quick speech from Nasrallah, in which he repeated the threats and some of the previous statements, without his words containing anything that suggested the entry of new factors into the constants of Hezbollah’s behavior towards Israel.
Nasrallah’s speech, hours following the killing of party leader Ali al-Debs, is almost similar to the speech on January 4 this year, hours following the assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in the southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s stronghold. These data indicate that the expected attack on Rafah might To pass without major escalatory decisions from the leader of Hezbollah, who appears as if he is a politician trying to avoid a new war similar to the 2006 war, because this time it may lead to the party being effectively removed from the south, which may make the Lebanese equation severely distorted to its disadvantage, especially since Israel It seems prepared for a war that will last more than a month, which is the length of time that the July 2006 war took.
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