It’s the worst case scenario. An invasion of Ukraine that would see Russia exploit its overwhelming military superiority by attacking on multiple fronts, from the Northeast, Donbass and Crimea. Russian troops, still deployed in Belarus despite assurances given by Vladimir Putin to Emmanuel Macron, would spearhead a breakthrough south to encircle the capital, Kiev. The Ukrainian army deployed in the Donbass would, in theory, be forced to surrender.
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The goal? The rapid capitulation of the Ukrainian government and the “neutralization” of its elected leaders. Pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians, such as the oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, indicted in May 2021 for high treason by the Ukrainian authorities, might be put in power, possibly rigging future elections. According to several analysts, including Michael Kofman, director of the Russian studies program at the Center for a New American Security (CNA), it would be “the best way for Moscow to achieve lasting political gains”.
In other words, an institutionally weak Ukraine dependent on Russia. Moscow would take the opportunity to target Belarusian and Russian political opponents and dissidents exiled in Ukraine. According to the Foreign Policy site, Russia would have drawn up lists of political figures likely to be arrested or assassinated in the event of an invasion.
Another less ambitious option
Other experts believe that Moscow might opt for a more limited and less risky offensive, such as seizing the rest of Kiev-controlled Donbass and the ports of Mariupol on the Azov Sea and Odessa on the Black Sea. , establishing a form of territorial continuity with Crimea. Russia would impose a partition by controlling, directly or indirectly, most of the country without the western regions.
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Either way, the cost would be high. The United States estimates that the clashes might cause 50,000 civilian casualties or more. Human rights violations and war crimes would be inevitable. Hundreds of thousands of people might leave the country to take refuge in Poland and other European Union countries.
For their part, the Ukrainian armed forces, joined by volunteers, might resist and inflict significant losses on the Russian soldiers. “Putin has already gone to war four times: Chechnya 1999, Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 and Syria 2015”comments Michael McFaul, former American ambassador to Russia, on his Twitter account. “Each time the West mightn’t stop him and he felt like he had won. Tragically, Putin feels comfortable in war. »
Sanctions following the invasion
One thing is certain, Westerners will wait for an offensive by Russian forces to impose new sanctions on Russia. Contrary to the wishes expressed on Saturday February 19 in Munich by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who would like to see them applied now, to dissuade the Kremlin from attacking, rather than to punish it a posteriori. ” Why wait ? he asked. We will not need sanctions once we have been attacked and we have no borders and no economy. What would be the use of such sanctions then? »
After the invasion, Americans and Europeans promise “massive” sanctions, even if the countries of the European Union remain divided on the question. Will the assets of the Russian president and his entourage in Europe be targeted? The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen specified that the “package” envisaged by the Twenty-Seven includes measures to limit Russia’s access to financial markets.
No NATO member country plans to get directly involved in the defense of Ukraine, which is not part of the Atlantic Alliance. On the other hand, some of them plan to provide military assistance to the resistance, through the sharing of intelligence and the delivery of weapons such as portable missiles.
