He reminded that V. Gerasimov was the commander-in-chief of his country’s army for more than a decade, but “the invasion of Ukraine and the attempt of Wagner’s mercenaries to carry out a coup greatly weakened his position.”
“Due to the strong defense of Kyiv forces, supported by Western weapons and support, in the nine months since his appointment, the Russian army has occupied only 466 sq. km of the territory of Ukraine, which is 0.08 percent. V. Gerasimov was blamed for that. Many nationalist military bloggers, who have a right to criticize the conduct of the war, blamed it for failing to ensure that the superpower, which is believed to have modernized significantly over the past 15 years, occupies most of its smaller neighbor’s territory,” the article reads.
The reviewer, who assessed V. Gerasimov’s entire career path, pointed out that before the start of the invasion of Ukraine last February, he had an impressive ability to adapt. According to him, while still a young student at a military school, he overcame his lack of natural intuition by “devouring stacks of military books by Russian military theorists.”
Later he became the best student. At the age of 22, he was a tank commander in 1977. In Poland and later among senior officers of the Baltic Military District in Estonia in the early 1990s, he watched as Western-funded pro-democracy groups helped overthrow the Soviet regime.
“In 2014, after spending years studying US irregular warfare, which involves covert influence operations to achieve conventional military goals, V. Gerasimov helped annex Crimea. He oversaw the ‘green men’, dressed in green Russian uniforms and carrying Russian weapons, who later that year took over parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine,” the author of the article continued.
“From Putin’s point of view, he was surrounded by so many people who made promises and didn’t keep their promises. But here was a man who, having received a task, went and fulfilled it. This is exactly what V. Putin valued,” Russian history expert Mark Galeotti told The Independent.
Scanpix/AP Photo/Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov visit the military headquarters for the offensive in Ukraine
Military analysts Mike Coffman and Rob Lee noted that V. Gerasimov launched an ill-advised and ill-timed offensive in late January.
“The still recovering Russian army was unable to conduct offensive operations due to a lack of quality troops, equipment and ammunition,” they wrote.
In June, not only was the mutiny of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of the “Wagner” private mercenary group, after which V. Gerasimov did not appear in public for several weeks, but a counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces was launched, which forced Russia to take defensive actions, which probably did not please V. Putin very much.
Almost two months after the October meeting between V. Gerasimov and V. Putin, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense noted in a military review that V. Gerasimov ordered as many as eight Russian brigades to take “major offensive actions” in Avdiyivka, the most important city in eastern Ukraine, located on the front line .
However, the renewed Russian offensive has already taken draconian losses and has not fundamentally changed the front line.
Reuters/Scanpix/Ukrainian soldiers near Avdijivka
Historian M. Galeotti believes that V. Gerasimov understands that now his career basically depends on his loyalty to the Russian leader.
“V. Gerasimov is preparing these offensives, despite the catastrophic casualties and the fact that they are often not so effective, because that is what V. Putin wants. He wants a proper, aggressive war. I think V. Gerasimov now understands that his career completely depends on loyalty to V. Putin. He must know how militarily foolish much of what he does is. But I think he feels he has no choice but to do what he’s told. This happens in the presence of personalistic authoritarianism”, said the expert, considering why V. Gerasimov failed in Ukraine and why V. Putin keeps him in the post, at least for now.
Meanwhile, military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko previously explained V. Gerasimov’s strategy towards Ukraine to the “Unian” news agency. According to him, it is based on two principles: “Attack at any cost!” or “No step back!”.
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2024-08-12 13:53:44
