The incidence of COVID-19 has started to increase again, and the start of school will further accelerate the spread of viruses. People in the risk group should therefore be vaccinated against the coronavirus, as vaccines continue to offer good protection against severe disease.
According to the Health Board, the incidence of COVID-19 in Estonia has been increasing since the beginning of July. Last week, 945 people fell ill, and compared to the previous week, the incidence increased by 9.6%. The average morbidity in Estonia was 77.2 per 100,000 inhabitants. Morbidity was higher than the average in Hiiumaa, where 142.6 inhabitants fell ill per 100,000 people, and the corresponding figure in Võrumaa was 120.4. In the last week, however, the pace of growth began to slow down, but by the start of school, children will return to their homes, and therefore the spread of COVID-19 and other disease-causing pathogens can be expected to accelerate in the coming weeks.
The first cases of the disease have also been registered in welfare institutions, and currently there are two outbreaks of COVID-19 under observation in the South region, where a total of 17 people have fallen ill. The number of people hospitalized has remained at a low level so far, and there have been weeks where no one infected with the coronavirus has been treated. According to the Center for Health and Welfare Information Systems (TEHIK), three people with an average age of 74 were hospitalized due to COVID-19 last week.
In the previous summer weeks, mostly young people have fallen ill with COVID-19, who suffer from the disease mildly or asymptomatically. However, if you look at the narrower age groups, the most ill people are in the 55-59 age group. In the last week, an increase in morbidity has been observed especially in the older age groups, which indicates a wider spread of the virus than before.
According to data validated and published by the Health Development Institute’s cause of death registry, the last death from COVID-19 this year was registered in June. A total of 57 people have died from COVID-19 since the beginning of the year (for comparison – 310 people died in 2023 and 903 people in 2022).
How dangerous is the COVID-19 strain circulating in Estonia?
Just like in other parts of Europe, from the beginning of 2024, the BA.2.86 variant of the coronavirus and its descendants, specifically sublines JN1 and KP.3, will dominate in Estonia. Sublines of this variant spread rapidly but have not yet shown an association with greater severity of infection or a significant reduction in vaccine efficacy.
In the countries of the European Union and the European Economic Area, the incidence of COVID-19 started to increase three weeks earlier. However, according to information from the ECDC (European Center for Disease Prevention and Control), many countries have reported that the incidence is rather on a downward trend. Thus, for currently circulating strains, the overall impact of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic on hospitals and mortality is relatively low. The group most affected by the illness has been people aged 65 and over, who also end up in hospital, underscoring the fact that vulnerable risk groups are still at a higher risk of developing serious diseases.
Who is at risk?
As a result of analyzing data from previous years, the main risk factor for the development of severe forms of COVID-19 is the age of people. 91% of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 as the main disease are patients aged 60 years and older. The likelihood of hospitalization increases significantly for patients aged 85+, who are 138 times more likely to be hospitalized than children and 109.4 times more likely than adults and 4.4 times more likely than patients aged 60-74.
In addition to age, the presence of concomitant diseases is an important risk factor. About 80 percent of patients had several pathologies, the most important of which can be identified as cardiovascular diseases.
In case of severe cases, insufficient vaccination coverage can also be cited as a risk factor. Only 3.5% of hospitalized patients aged 60 and over were vaccinated due to the underlying disease, and only one person who died due to the coronavirus had been vaccinated. According to WHO and ECDC experts, vaccines continue to provide good protection against severe disease.
Short-term forecast and recommendations for the fall season of 2024
The Board of Health predicts a greater increase in illnesses related to both COVID-19 and other acute respiratory viruses from September, which is usually associated with the start of school work. Since there are many relatively mild and asymptomatic forms of COVID-19, the virus is most likely to spread covertly and in waves.
In the 2024-2025 season, immunization against COVID-19 is guaranteed for staff working in health care services, 24-hour general care services provided outside the home, 24-hour special care services and community living services. People 60 years of age or older, pregnant women and those with an increased risk of becoming seriously ill due to a medical condition are also vaccinated free of charge.
Vaccination is generally not necessary for children and adults aged 18-60 who do not belong to the target groups. Vaccination against COVID-19 is guaranteed for people outside the target group, if it is justified in the opinion of a healthcare worker due to health risks. Whether a patient belongs to a risk group can be checked, for example, on the health portal, and a list of the health conditions of the risk group is published on the vaccina.ee page (the COVID-19 subpage, under “Who is most at risk?” information).
The Health Board’s recommendations on how to protect yourself and your loved ones:
If you belong to a risk group, get vaccinated! The main risk factor is people’s age and serious co-morbidities. According to the recommendations of the immunoprophylaxis expert committee, this fall Estonia will provide free vaccine only to risk groups. Currently circulating strains do not cause severe disease in people not at risk.
Information about vaccination sites can be found on the vaksana.ee website.
- Stay home when you’re sick! Visit people in the risk group only if you are convinced that you are healthy.
- If you suspect infection, test yourself. Remember that in the first days of the disease, the rapid test may not give a reliable result! If necessary, repeat the test a few days later.
- If you fall ill, contact your family doctor or the family doctor’s advice line 1220.
- As a person at risk, avoid crowded places or wear a mask there.
- Follow the general rules of hygiene!
- Follow a healthy lifestyle – get enough sleep, be physically active, avoid stress, drink enough fluids and eat nutritious food.
2024-08-28 09:13:13
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