2023-09-08 13:47:40
6 hours ago
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Indian Prime Minister Modi has high hopes for improving the country’s image through this G20 summit.
The 18th Summit of the Leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) will be held in New Delhi, India, for two consecutive days starting from September 9. Less than a week before the opening of the conference, China announced that Premier Li Qiang would lead a delegation to attend, indirectly confirming that President Xi Jinping would be absent, sparking heated discussions in the international community.
This is the first time that China’s top leader has been absent from the G20 summit since it was first held in 2008. Xi Jinping is also the second permanent member leader of the United Nations to confirm that he will not attend this session, after Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As the rotating chairman of the G20, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried his best to talk about sustainable development and improve the country’s image around the theme of the conference “One World”, but he was ignored by the two major powers.
The G20 encompasses 85% of the world’s economic output, 75% of total international trade, and two-thirds of the population. The success or failure of its leaders’ summit has far-reaching consequences. BBC Chinese takes stock of the eight major focuses of this session and the meaning behind Xi Jinping’s absence.
1. The “Indian moment” in the absence of China
The implications of Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 New Delhi Summit to India, the country that holds the current presidency, may inevitably become an important focus of this summit.
Dr. Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the East Asia Policy Research Center of the Brookings Institution, an American think tank, said in an interview with BBC Radio 4 that India and Modi would like to take advantage of this grand event to tell the world : This is India’s moment; India is a bridge between the industrialized countries and the developing group of people in the so-called Global South.
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Neither Beijing nor New Delhi gave a reason for Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 summit.
Dr. Tanvi Madan said: “I think India will regard Xi Jinping’s absence for whatever reason as being ignored…China does not regard India as an equal.”
Professor Eric Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, told BBC Chinese: “China is undoubtedly India’s competitor in the fight for leadership in the ‘Global South’, and China cannot see why it should sell itself to India. Favor.”
Finnish scholar Dr Sari Arho Havrén has worked and lived in mainland China and Hong Kong for more than ten years. She is currently an associate researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK and a visiting scholar at the University of Helsinki in Finland. She does not believe that Xi Jinping’s absence is directed at India or Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself.
Dr. Insari told BBC Chinese: “I think to a greater extent this is aimed at snubbing the G20 group because it fails to promote Xi Jinping’s goals.”
“Looking at Xi Jinping’s performance at the BRICS Summit in South Africa, especially his speech, the G20 could not give him the same stage and honor. On the contrary, there were many controversial topics on the G20 agenda.”
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Analysts believe that one of the reasons why Xi Jinping was absent from the New Delhi summit was to demonstrate his dissatisfaction with organizations dominated by Western powers such as the G20.
The “Global South” usually refers to a group of countries mainly located in Africa, Asia and Latin America (Asia, Africa and Latin America), which are described as developing or less developed countries.
Prime Minister Modi stated in a signed article on September 7: “In December 2022, when we took over the presidency from Indonesia, I wrote that the G20 must catalyze a change in thinking, especially in mainstreaming the marginalized aspirations of developing countries, the Global South and Africa.”
Dr Happymon Jacob, associate professor at the School of International Relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University in India, commented to BBC News India: “He (Prime Minister Modi) has positioned himself as As a global politician, the success of this G20 drama will add points to this image.”
Regarding China, Wang Yi, who is in charge of foreign affairs, said: “China is a natural member of the ‘Global South’ and will always be a member of the family of developing countries.”
In the G20 group, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa form their own BRICS organization. The recent Johannesburg Summit confirmed that the BRICS will soon expand to include Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as members.
Professor Eric Tsang pointed out in an interview with Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the G20 is not a place where China can gain dominance. China emphasizes its relations with developing countries and aims to establish a liberal international order that is different from that led by the United States. This time The expansion of BRICS is at least “China-friendly”.
Daniel Price, who served as Presidential Economic Advisor during the term of former U.S. President George W. Bush and also served as the U.S. government’s G20 “Sherpa” (meeting coordinator)Speaking to the Financial Times, Xi Jinping did not attend the G20 New Delhi Summit, highlighting the real lack of closeness among BRICS countries and weakening the “hype” of BRICS expansion. He believes that “the only consensus (among BRICS countries) seems to be the desire to hedge the dollar against US leadership.”
Professor Rana Mitter, an expert on U.S.-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School, told the BBC: “Every time China attends an international summit, it hopes to be seen as a representative of emerging global leadership. The problem is that China’s economy is not very good at the moment.”
“At this moment, China has failed to tell the world a very, very positive story. I think this is one of the reasons why Xi Jinping believes that Prime Minister Li Qiang can tell a better story than him.”
2. Where will bilateral relations go without a summit between China and the United States?
Since Biden and Xi Jinping met at the G20 Bali Summit in November last year, the spy balloon dispute, as well as existing conflicts between the two sides – trade sanctions from the Trump era, the Huawei Meng Wanzhou incident, Hong Kong and Xinjiang Human rights issues, etc. – Sino-US relations have been tense for a long time, and the two heads of state have not met again since then.
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Biden hopes to meet Xi Jinping during the APEC San Francisco Summit in November.
Since the beginning of this year, many senior officials including US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have visited China, but they have failed to fundamentally ease bilateral relations.
Xi Jinping was absent from the G20 summit in New Delhi, and Biden lost the opportunity to meet with him. The next one will be the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in San Francisco (San Francisco; also translated as San Francisco) in the United States in November.
Dr. Insari from RUSI believes that in the midst of the struggle for leadership in the Global South, Xi Jinping’s choice to skip the New Delhi Summit is also very likely aimed at snubbing the United States and even the entire West, and at the same time re-establishing the trend of “all nations coming to North Korea”.
Dr. Insari told BBC Chinese: “Xi Jinping seems to want to establish a presence like Mao Zedong for himself, and world leaders are queuing up to see him in Beijing. Furthermore, Beijing often sends signals that the United States must create conditions for Xi Jinping to participate APEC meeting and meeting with Biden.”
“But obviously, the conditions for Xi Jinping to take action are not yet met. This is the case for the G20, and maybe even APEC.”
Rana Mitte, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told the BBC that the United States and the restless Sino-US relations are the primary considerations for Xi Jinping and leaders in Beijing, and they have no regard for India’s feelings.
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Looking at the G20 in numbers Source: Group of Twenty (G20)
3. How does the Taiwan issue affect participating countries?
Taiwan may not necessarily be the main topic at this G20 summit, but many participating countries that have tense relations with China have recently caused dissatisfaction with Beijing due to their exchanges with Taiwan. The interaction between the Chinese delegation and these countries may be affected by this.
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India has increased interactions with Taiwan in recent years, causing dissatisfaction in mainland China.
In August, three recently retired military leaders from India, the host country of the G20 Summit, went to Taipei to participate in the “Kedagalan Forum-2023 Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue”.And received by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbinend of augustWhen asked about this by a Pakistani reporter, he said: “China firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between countries that have diplomatic relations with the Taiwan authorities.”
Meenakshi Lekhi, Minister of State (Under Secretary for Foreign Affairs) in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who has recently promoted the image of “representing global South Africa” on behalf of the Modi government, is also widely referred to as a “Taiwan friendly” figure by Taiwanese media.
Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, who stepped down after only 45 days in office, visited Taiwan in May this year and met with President Tsai Ing-wen. During his visit to Taiwan, Truss called on his successor Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to label China a “threat” to British security and urged the West to take a tough stance against China.
In addition, Washington has recently stepped up its military assistance and support to Taiwan, including the Biden administration’s approval in August of arms transfers to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing Plan.
Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University in the United States, wrote that Biden has now missed the opportunity to meet Xi Jinping at the G20, and Xi Jinping may also miss the APEC San Francisco Summit. Everything depends on whether China and the United States can How much trust can be rebuilt in the coming months?
4. How to deal with the Russia-Ukraine war
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Putin has missed two major international meetings since the ICC issued his arrest warrant.
Since India took over the G20 presidency this year, many ministerial meetings have faced great resistance in reaching a joint statement, including the Finance Ministers’ Meeting in February and the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in March. China’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine in the “strongest terms” is a major factor.
Dr. Insari from RUSI also told BBC Chinese that the Ukrainian issue will inevitably be discussed at this summit, but it will be difficult for all countries to unite in condemning Russia in the final statement.
In late August, after Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg via video conference, he informed Indian Prime Minister Modi that he would be absent from the G20 Summit.
Song Wendi, a lecturer at the School of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University, posted on He committed war crimes and an arrest warrant was issued for him in March.
Agence France-Presse quoted a G20 diplomat as saying that Xi Jinping may have chosen to avoid sharp questions about his refusal to condemn Russia. The Financial Times quoted two European officials involved in the preparations for the conference as saying that on the Ukrainian issue, this year’s conflicts will be more acute than last year’s Bali Summit in Indonesia, and it is very likely that the conference declaration will not be issued.
Professor Eric Tsang of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, told BBC Chinese: “Xi Jinping openly supports Putin and is not embarrassed at all. If Xi Jinping does not want to answer any tough questions from reporters, he would not answer them. Who can we expect at the G20 summit? What about publicly humiliating Xi Jinping?”
Former Indian diplomat Professor Jitendra Nath Misra told BBC India News: “India is trying to blur the lines between foreign affairs and domestic affairs, and the G20 is the most important occasion to achieve this goal. The government is well aware of this.”
“India will hope that the focus of the meeting will be on issues that can lead to consensus, rather than divisive issues like Ukraine. It has not succeeded for the time being, but it will hope to do a better job.”
5. What to do about debt crisis
Since India assumed the presidency of the G20, the group has continued to discuss how to increase loans from multilateral institutions to developing countries, reform international lending infrastructure, regulate cryptocurrency, and cope with the impact of geopolitical instability on food and energy security.
“The debt crisis is undoubtedly a matter of deep concern to the world, especially for developing countries,” Modi said in an exclusive interview with the Press Trust of India (PTI) this week.
But according to analysis by BBC India News, it will not be easy to reach an agreement on the debt crisis at this summit. India and other countries have long advocated that developed countries and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should provide assistance to countries that have difficulty repaying debts. However, without China’s participation, such negotiations are difficult to achieve.
In December last year, then World Bank President David Malpass pointed out that the world’s poorest countries owed $62 billion in annual debt services to creditors every year, two-thirds of which I am in arrears with China. As a result, many countries are facing debt defaults, poverty has worsened, and food and fuel prices have skyrocketed.
Western officials often describe China’s lending practices as “predatory,” but Beijing denies such accusations.
6. Sustainable development issues
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India still relies heavily on fossil fuels, causing air pollution.
The Modi government hopes that the leaders’ summit during its term will focus on discussing sustainable development. Former US Ambassador to India Tim Roemer also expected in an interview with BBC TV News that the G20 New Delhi Summit will be more discuss the issue of climate change. He estimated that the joint statement after the meeting would avoid the Ukraine issue and be more likely to discuss climate change and development strategies.
However, BBC International Media Observation Department (BBC Monitoring) pointed out that the Indian media is not optimistic that the summit can reach an agreement on sustainable development and climate change countermeasures.
At the end of July, G20 environment and climate ministers, invited countries and representatives of 23 international organizations met in Chennai. The official statement after the meeting was interpreted by the Indian media as that the parties still have differences on a number of key issues, including improving the Emission reduction targets to achieve the 2025 international emission reduction targets.
7. Japan’s Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge “affected the G20”
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Fumio Kishida hopes to take the opportunity to persuade leaders of participating countries that Japan’s discharge of treated nuclear wastewater is “safe.”
Tokyo officials previously revealed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hopes to seek understanding from various countries on the drainage decision by holding bilateral talks with the heads of participating countries during the G20 New Delhi Summit. Among them, Fumio Kishida hopes to request Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang to revoke the comprehensive suspension of imports of Japanese aquatic products.
Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant began discharging what Japan said was treated nuclear wastewater into the Pacific Ocean in August, and China protested particularly strongly.
On September 6, Fumio Kishida briefly stood and talked with Li Qiang while attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, ASEAN, also translated as ASEAN) meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshi Matsuno said at a press conference on the 7th that he could not disclose the details of the conversation between the two, but he “positively evaluated” the conversation.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: Premier Li Qiang said that “the disposal of nuclear contaminated water is related to the global marine ecological environment, people’s health and the interests of future generations. Japan should faithfully fulfill its international obligations and fully consult with neighboring countries and other stakeholders.” , dispose of nuclear contaminated water responsibly.
Song Wendi, a lecturer at the Australian National University, said: “When China’s political propaganda against Japan’s Fukushima wastewater discharge is at its peak, Xi Jinping may not want to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.”
8. Britain seeks to “look east” after Brexit
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Sunak (middle), who has been Prime Minister for almost a year, once said that the “golden era” between Britain and China has ended.
Downing Street’s Prime Minister’s Office described the visit of British Prime Minister Sunak and his wife, who are of Indian origin, to New Delhi to participate in the G20 meeting as “historic” and “a powerful reminder of the existence of a living bridge between the two countries.”
Dr. Ding Hongliang, a lecturer in comparative politics at the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Reading, UK, who specializes in British politics, pointed out that Timothy’s statement is similar to the views of various Conservative governments after Brexit. There is no doubt that the Sunak government It is eager to reach a trade agreement with India and other countries outside the European Union to boost the economy and pave the way for the next British parliamentary election.
Ding Hongliang told BBC Chinese that he believed that Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 summit was a “blessing in disguise” for Prime Minister Sunak, saving him the headache of how to deal with China and satisfying the demands of the hawks and doves within the Conservative Party.
Professor Eric Tsang of the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London believes that regardless of whether the UK leaves the EU or not, it is correct to strengthen exchanges with Asia, provided that UK-EU relations cannot be sacrificed.
Professor Eric Tsang told BBC Chinese: “Whether Xi Jinping appears in Delhi or not has very little to do with the UK. Even if they can meet in Delhi, Sunak will not get it anyway as long as it is not a benefit that Xi Jinping intentionally gives.”
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