2024-02-16 16:28:00
The year started with a decline in market sales due to the sharp increase in 0km prices In the last part of the year, after the devaluation of the peso after the inauguration of Javier Milei. Only in December, The general increase in 0km was between 40% and 60%well above the cost of living index and more in line with the rise in the exchange rate.
The result of this economic blow was that last month was the worst start to the year in vehicle registrations for 20 years. You have to go back to January 2004 to find a minor record. In that month, 31,935 0km had been patented.
The data indicates that February will add another negative month for the sector. Until yesterday, operations registered a decrease of 44% compared to the same month in 2023. It must be taken into account that this week had two Carnival holidays that a year ago fell in the second fortnight.
With this clarification, the data until yesterday show that only 7,846 units have been patented so far this month, while in the cumulative total of the year 41,215 operations have been computed, a decrease of 35.2% compared to the same period in 2023.
Projections for the February market point to a patent volume of around 24,000 units.
In this way, they will exceed the volume registered in February 2004, which was 18,000 vehicles, but it will be below the same month of 2005.
“The month continues with the same trend as in January. Prices rose a lot and this adjustment will take time for demand to recover. “It hit like a handbrake,” they explained to Ámbito from a dealership.
At that time, the economy was still recovering from the crisis of the exit from convertibility and the fall of Fernando De la Rúa’s government at the end of 2001. This caused the collapse of the economy and in all of 2002 only 90,000 were sold. vehicles. In 2005, the market recovery allowed it to reach 385,000 patented units. This year it is estimated that it could remain below that number, although it will depend on whether or not there is a recovery in consumption in the second half of 2024.
The data from the beginning of this year is worrying since January represents, seasonally, the month with the highest volume of patents each year, because many sales made in November and December are transferred to register the following year to have a car. as a model of that year.
In concrete numbers, it is estimated that January is the equivalent of just over 11% of the annual market. If a linear projection is made, the volume of operations in 2024 would have to be between 300,000 and 340,000 units. To get an idea of the market decline, 450,000 vehicles were sold in 2023.
In any case, in the sector they estimate that this difference can be reduced since they believe that what is happening in the market will not be projected all year. In that case, the market would tend to be above 350,000 units.
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