2023-05-25 23:30:00
Since ChatGPT became accessible to everyone, the fear of seeing artificial intelligence (AI) replacing our jobs is everywhere. But the great replacement scenario no longer seems so plausible in the eyes of experts, who however see AI transforming almost all jobs.
“We recently had alarmist studies which said that 70% of jobs might disappear. I’m skeptical, but don’t be naïve either. All technological waves lead to structural changes and there will be impacts that will change the nature of jobs,” analyzes assistant professor in the HEC human resources department, Xavier Parent-Rocheleau.
The advent of electricity, that of the motor vehicle or the Internet have profoundly changed the world of work, as AI is called upon to do. But this new wave is hitting a different category of workers head-on: professionals.
“In previous waves, less qualified people were more at risk. Artificial intelligence has a very significant impact on the work of doctors and lawyers, for example. And if the tools improve, there might be less demand for certain professionals,” points out Mr. Parent-Rocheleau.
Professionals caught up in the wave
For a long time, task automation was associated with the manufacturing sector, but it is now entering professions such as accounting, computer programming or even human resource management. It is used to calculate, synthesize, or even select candidates for a job, so that the same work can be done with fewer employees. From March 2022 to March 2023, the number of unemployed professionals increased by 150,000 in the United States, according to the research group Employ America.
“The use of artificial intelligence has increased by 300% over the past four or five years. It is the acceleration of adoption that is a little scary and upsetting, ”observes labor sociologist Mircea Vultur, professor at the National Institute for Scientific Research.
As at the Montreal Economic Institute (IEDM), Mr. Vultur sees the AI revolution as creative destruction. There will be disappearances and job creations, which are difficult to predict as progress is so rapid.
“Each hour worked will have increased productivity and the impact will be beneficial for society as a whole because more productivity means more products and possibly lower costs, so all consumers will benefit” , believes Gabriel Giguère, public policy analyst at the MEI.
Dangers
However, we must be wary of the economic interests behind AI, says Professor Parent-Rocheleau of HEC.
“The economic situation is given as a reason to accelerate automation, but in 10 years, the shortage of labor will be behind and we might have a lot of unemployment. I think you have to be wary of all-out automation,” he says.
Social inequalities are likely to increase with AI, which will make winners and losers. If it remains possible that a technology creates more jobs than it eliminates, there will inevitably be deskillings and therefore human tragedies.
“Now the real danger with AI is not so much job replacement. We must ensure that humans remain autonomous and responsible in the use of the tool, so that they develop the ability to challenge its recommendations,” considers Professor Parent-Rocheleau.
The most important skill to develop? The jugement. Because foolishly relying on the tool would lead to disaster: it is not always right, far from it!
jobs at risk
All the experts agree on the impossibility of precisely predicting the jobs that will disappear and those that might be created by artificial intelligence. Development is moving so fast that to predict is probably wrong.
Think of the truck and bus drivers we thought would disappear with self-driving vehicles.
“We no longer hear regarding it and there is a slowdown in investment in this sector,” observes Xavier Parent-Rocheleau, assistant professor in the human resources department of HEC.
On the other hand, jobs that involve several automatable tasks also include a relational component and decision-making aspects that require human intelligence.
But here are some sectors where workers will increasingly have to work in collaboration with artificial intelligence or sometimes be partially replaced by it.
- IT: coders, programmers, data analysts
- Media: content creators, marketers, journalists, translators
- Legal: paralegals, researchers
- Retail: cashiers, customer service
- Finance and insurance: accounting, data analyst, customer service
- Human resources: recruiters
Professions that will still require a lot of human capital often have a physical component:
- Health: nurses, respiratory therapists, social workers, etc.
- policemen
- Construction
- Tourism and leisure
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