2024-04-19 19:35:24
In light of talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday and the United States regarding the continuation of a ground attack on Rafah in southern Gaza, questions arise regarding the position of the Egyptian side regarding the operation and the expected reactions. especially in light of the American side’s fears of “catastrophic consequences” for civilians.
Israel wants the return of hostages held by Hamas since its October 7 attack, which led to the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip, but says it will not stop fighting until Hamas is not destroyed as a military force. He also says he is still considering launching an attack on the town of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, where more than a million Palestinian civilians have taken refuge, according to Reuters.
Egypt has repeatedly warned of the consequences of a military operation in Rafah. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi warned of “the dangerous consequences of any military operation in the Palestinian town of Rafah, south of Gaza”, during his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in March last.
Israel does not want to upset Egypt
General Staff Harb and the military expert of the Nasser Higher Military Academy, Major General Abdel Moneim Ibrahim Ghaleb, told the Al-Hurra website: “The implementation of a military operation in Rafah in its current state and without widespread evacuation of civilians would amount to a massacre. , and it is not in Israel’s interest.
He predicted that “if Israel does decide to carry out a military operation in Rafah, it will work to ensure the movement of Palestinians north to Gaza.”
The military expert denied the notion that Egypt was ready for a military response if events worsened in the region, emphasizing Egypt’s commitment to the peace agreement, saying that “the “The arrival of Israeli forces on the Philadelphia axis is considered a violation of the Camp David agreement.” , and yet Egypt will not resort to a military solution.”
He added: “The Philadelphia axis is an area of 5 square kilometers and is known as Area (D). It is located on the border between Egypt and Israel and is located following the Egyptian fence. As for areas (A), (B) and (C), they are located in Sinai itself. »
He continued: “The peace agreement specifies the number of forces entering this region, and any increase in this number represents a violation of that agreement and a violation of the peace treaty, which Israel would not want to see happen. now because he doesn’t want that to happen. I wish to sever relations with Egypt, particularly in light of its quest for normalization with Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia.
The major general said: “It is not in the interests of Israelis in general to arouse Egypt’s hostility at this time. Therefore, whatever scenario is implemented in Rafah, Israel will avoid occupying the Philadelphia axis By conducting a military operation in Rafah, Israel will strive to ensure the rapid withdrawal of its forces following the completion of its tasks.
The military expert mentioned two elements that will give Netanyahu pause before embarking on a comprehensive military operation in Rafah. The first is the American position, which he considers “a factor of pressure on Israel and its current projects”. Washington has clearly confirmed its refusal to repeat what happened in Gaza once morest civilians.”
The second element, from General Ghaleb’s point of view, is the internal political pressure exerted on Netanyahu, explaining that the invasion of Rafah is considered the last card in the hands of the Israeli government before public opinion, and that if the The military operation fails In implementing his stated goals of eliminating Hamas leaders and freeing Israeli hostages, he will realize that “Netanyahu himself finds himself in a very difficult position.”
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Friday: “We cannot support a major military operation in Rafah, and we believe Israel can achieve its objectives without attack,” adding that “high-level talks are underway with Israel. according to Reuters.
The White House said U.S. and Israeli officials discussed U.S. concerns over different lines of action in Rafah on Thursday, concerns which Israel agreed to take into account and discuss further, adding that the officials will meet once more soon.
The White House added in a statement: “Both sides agreed on the common goal of defeating Hamas in Rafah.”
In response to a question regarding the possibility of Egypt temporarily opening its doors to allow the entry of Palestinian refugees from Gaza, following the military action in Rafah, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, told CNN on Tuesday. that Egypt will continue to work in accordance with… This meets the interests of the Palestinian people. “How you proceed will depend on the circumstances,” he added.
Shukri added that any mass displacement resulting from Israeli military operations in Rafah would amount to a war crime. Shukri said: “Displacement and any activity that aids and abets displacement is a war crime and must be treated as such. »
Rule out a military operation before Easter
Speaking to the Al-Hurra website, military expert General Samir Faraj ruled out “Israel carrying out a military operation before Passover on April 22.”
He agreed with Major General Ghaleb’s comments that launching an operation at this time would be a “human massacre”, especially since “regarding one and a half million people currently live in an area of regarding 8 km, what the Americans say. The administration warned once morest this situation and requested the evacuation of citizens to reduce civilian casualties.
Faraj believes that the statements regarding a ground attack are mainly aimed at pressuring Hamas to accept the conditions imposed by Israel in the truce talks, especially since it rejected previous proposals presented by the Netanyahu government .
The Hamas movement rejected an Israeli ceasefire proposal and said on Saturday it had submitted its response to the proposal it had received to mediators in Egypt and Qatar.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that, six months following the start of the war, there is still no promise of a breakthrough in the US-backed talks led by Qatar and Egypt to reach a cease-fire agreement. -the fire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. , both of whom adhere to conditions that the other does not accept.
The Israeli army announced on Sunday that it would soon mobilize two divisions of reserve forces for operations in the Gaza Strip, where it is waging a war once morest Hamas. The Israeli military said Tuesday that its forces continued operations in the central Gaza Strip and that they had killed a number of gunmen who tried to attack them.
Regarding the Egyptian position, Faraj believes that “the Egyptian government does not consider itself a party to this conflict”, stressing that Egypt will not open its borders to travel and that it has established camps for refugees coming from northern Gaza, and that Israel therefore has no solution but to send civilians back to Gaza. »
The military expert believes that “Israel will not seek to cause complete destruction in Rafah because this would endanger the lives of the Israeli hostages and, therefore, all it cares regarding is accessing the tunnels and inspecting them at their research. be careful in military relations in this region, especially since it is realized that these tunnels contain a high percentage of mines and explosives.”
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