The High-Stakes Duel: Finland’s Presidential Elections and Tensions with Russia and NATO

2024-02-11 07:37:00
Presidential elections in Finland: key duel between Stubb and Haavisto amid tensions with Russia and NATO. (REUTERS)

The Finns elect their president this Sunday, a position whose importance has grown since the country joined NATO due to tensions with its neighbor Russia over the war in Ukraine.

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The polling stations in this northern European country, which shares 1,340 km of borders with Russia, opened at 9:00 a.m. and will close at 8:00 p.m.

It is expected that a few minutes following the closing of the voting centers, the first official data of the count, corresponding to early voting, will be made public.

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Analysts estimate that participation might exceed that registered in the first round, when 75% of Finns residing in the Nordic country cast their vote and only 16.1% of those living in other countries.

About 4.3 million voters will have to choose between the former conservative prime minister, Alexander Stubb, and the former head of diplomacy, Pekka Haavisto.

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Stubb won the first round of the elections on January 28 with 27.2% of the votes, ahead of Haavisto, who obtained 25.8% and is running as an independent candidate despite being a member of the Green party.

Analysts estimate that participation might exceed that registered in the first round, when 75% of Finns residing in the Nordic country cast their vote and only 16.1% of those living in other countries. (REUTERS/Tom Little)

The head of state, with fewer powers than the prime minister, is elected for a six-year term and directs the country’s foreign policy in close collaboration with the government. He is also supreme commander of the Armed Forces.

Its role has grown in importance since the war in Ukraine and Finland’s entry into NATO, to which Russia promised to respond with “countermeasures.”

The Nordic country remained neutral during the Cold War and has been a faithful defender of dialogue between Western countries and Russia.

But following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the country ended three decades of military non-alignment.

In August, Finland accused Moscow of orchestrating a migrant crisis on its borders. As a result, it decided to close its border with Russia in November, a move supported by both candidates.

“The fact that we have just joined NATO is of considerable importance,” analyzes Theodora Helimaki, a political science researcher at the University of Helsinki.

A poll conducted by public television Yle gave Stubb 54% of the votes, compared to 46% for Haavisto. (REUTERS)

The new president, he notes, will be “largely” responsible for the way the alliance will be deployed in the country.

A poll conducted on Thursday by public television Yle gave Stubb 54% of the votes, compared to 46% for Haavisto.

Both candidates served as former foreign ministers and share the same vision on the stance to adopt towards Russia.

Stubb belongs to the conservative Kokoomus party, from which the current prime minister, Petteri Orpo, and the outgoing president, Sauli Niinistö, who has exhausted his two six-year terms, also come from.

The conservative candidate, who in his previous stage held the head of the Government and three ministries, returns to Finnish politics following seven years as vice president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) and, later, professor at the European University Institute (IUE) .

The difference between the two, however, lies in nuances, according to researcher Theodora Helimäki, who cites the issue of storage and transportation of nuclear weapons in Finland.

While Haavisto does not want to authorize them, Stubb believes that the country should not exclude “any part” of the alliance’s nuclear deterrence policy.

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