2024-11-06 09:32:00
How will the United States perform during Donald Trump’s next term? Past experience and its campaign slogans set the tone. Trade wars in sight!
What did we learn from first term of Donald Trump, from 2017 to 2021? Especially his dismal end to his mandate, with the invasion of the Capitol by his supporters. Also, his hyper communication on social networks, his good relations with dictators and his chaotic management of the covid crisis.
But we must not forget that the American economy was doing very well under Trump; many Americans remembered it. Until the pandemic arrived, in any case, America was living its good life. The real influence of the Republican president, however, remains to be put into perspective.
Trump had the chance to begin his mandate in a favorable environment. The good health of indicators such as the employment rate or the poverty rate essentially resulted from efforts made previously by Democrat Obama.
“This kind of personality is chosen on the basis of an empty agenda, and because she was able to play with frustrations.”
Under Trump, the United States had experienced the biggest tax cut in decades, rules were relaxed for banks, the environmental fight seemed forgotten. We seem to be heading back for a ride at the same tempo.
However, the gigantic federal debt had swelled further and trade wars had complicated international relations.
Brief, a mixed result. What to expect this time from Donald Trump, who is 78 years old? “The problem with populist candidates in our democracies is that they are often elected without having proposed a real project“, immediately summarizes political scientist Tanguy Struye (UCLouvain). “This type of personality is chosen on the basis of an empty program, and because she was able to play with frustrations.”
Donald Trump is, once again, lucky: inflation is back under control. But the man was ambitious: he announced measures which will shake up the world economy. Customs duties and tax cuts are its objectives.
He still plans to use customs tariffswith a tax on imports of foreign products from which he expects “billions of dollars”. Objective? Boost the American economy, to the detriment of imports.
Relaunch the trade wars
“He wants to impose customs tariffs on Mexico, Europe, China, to ‘relaunch the economy’. But this will increase inflation, therefore affecting the classes who voted for him.”
The next president thus aims toflat rate customs duties from 10% to 20% on many goods arriving in the United States, but also taxesat least 60% for imports from China. He also plans to tax 200% automakers who will move their production to Mexicowhich appears contrary to the free trade agreement signed in 2020 by his administration at the time. But he would like to renegotiate this agreement concluded with Mexico and Ottawa.
“He wants to impose customs tariffs on Mexico, Europe, China, to ‘relaunch the economy’. But this will increase inflation, therefore affecting the classes who voted for him. And what he wants forgot to say, is that other countries will retaliate!”, warns Tanguy Struye, political scientist at UCLouvain. Stock markets could be seriously shaken by these new trade wars.
The Republican also wants, with research and development aid, encourage manufacturers based in the United States.
Tax cuts galore
When it comes to taxes, Trump wants lower the rate on companies producing in the United States from 21% to 15%.
He also wants to reduce taxes individuals, particularly the richest and expatriate American citizens, affected by double taxation.
At work, overtime will no longer be taxed. Taxes on tipping in the catering industry are doomed to disappear under this new Trump mandate.
Budget specialists sounded the alarm during the campaign. These tax cuts could increase the federal public deficit by $3.6 trillion to $6.6 trillion in a decade.
Making energy
Donald Trump would like to counter inflation by increasing energy production. He envisions new pipelines and the return of fracking on federal lands. New exploitation projects (oil and gas) can be expected in the Arctic nature reserve, in Alaska.
Stop immigration
“He wants to deport 12 to 13 million illegals, but that seems impossible in practice.”
This is the populist’s mantra: closing borders, stop immigration. He wants to expel from the country the “millions of criminals” who entered illegally. How? We just know that he would get help from the National Guard.
“He wants to deport 12 to 13 million illegal immigrants, but that seems impossible in practice,” judges Tanguy Struye. “There is no room to detain all these people. And It would collapse the American economy.. These people mainly work in agriculture and restaurants, two sectors in which Americans do not want to work…”
The unknown around abortion
What is Trump’s real opinion on abortion? While he seemed in favor of it, he was conservative on the subject. He had supported the decision of the conservative judges of the Supreme Court, leaving each state to choose its legislation in the matter.
And to add to the cacophony, his wife Melania fervently defends the right to abortion in her autobiography.
Trumpist isolationism
“Trump promised to resolve the conflict in Ukraine,” recalls Tanguy Struye. “But how? To the detriment of what interests? With what consequences?”
In matters of foreign policy, we know the isolationist principles of Trumpism and his rejection of the concept of “international community”. The future populist president’s relationships with dictators, such as Putin or Kim jong-Un Also. This will inevitably influence the international relations of this new mandate.
Donald Trump strongly supports Israel. While the relationship between the two men went hot and cold depending on the events, he welcomed Benjamin Netanyahu at his home in Mar-a-Lagoin Florida, this summer. And he promised to make “all efforts” to bring peace to the Middle East.
Regarding the Russian invasion in Ukrainehe often criticized financial aid granted by the United States to kyiv, which raises fears of a serious impoverishment of this support. He also promised to resolve this conflict “in 24 hours”.
“He promised to resolve the conflict in Ukraine,” recalls Tanguy Struye. “But how? To the detriment of what interests? With what consequences?”
Climate: turning back the clock
Looking back on the climate efforts launched by Joe Biden: here’s what to expect… Donald Trump wishes remove a series of pro-climate laws and he still demands his country’s withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement.
He wants boost fossil energy productionremove the bonus of 7,500 euros offered on the purchase of an electric vehicle…
What about trials?
The new president is involved in several criminal cases, and he could quickly make decisions affecting his own court records.
As soon as he is invested, he will be able to order the cessation of federal proceedings against him.
Only the Stormy Daniels case does not depend on the federal level, but on the justice system of the State of New York. This implies that a president cannot touch it. Trump was found guilty here of 34 crimes of forgery of accounting documents. Sentencing is scheduled November 26th. He could be sentenced to prison, but probationary stay seems more likely.
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Trump environmental policy 2024
Ack the clock
Trump’s approach to climate change is characterized by skepticism and a commitment to reversing many environmental regulations put in place during the previous administration. His belief is that prioritizing energy production — particularly fossil fuels — will bolster the economy, even if it means sacrificing environmental protections.
Healthcare and social policies
In regards to healthcare, Trump has consistently criticized the Affordable Care Act, advocating for its repeal and replacement with a system that he claims will provide better coverage at lower costs. However, specifics on his proposals remain vague.
Economic policies and taxes
On economic issues, Trump emphasizes tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy, arguing that this will spur investment and create jobs. His administration previously implemented significant tax breaks, and he plans to continue this trend. Critics argue these policies disproportionately benefit the rich while failing to provide substantial help to the middle and lower classes.
Conclusion: The road ahead
The potential return of Trump to the presidency presents a myriad of uncertainties for both domestic and foreign policy. His populist rhetoric, isolationist tendencies, and controversial stances on immigration and healthcare are set to impact the U.S. significantly. As the election approaches, voters will need to weigh these factors heavily in their decision-making process.